CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.26
Hit
65.7%
EV+
+13.7%
Edge
+6.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsTake
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.09
Hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.3%
Edge
+2.6
L10
70%
xelex
Rifler
xelex
MOUZ vs The MongolZ
61%HIT CHANCE
TAKE · OVER 19.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP19.5UD19.5
▲ L5 21.0 · L20 20.1
Hit rates at 19.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.16
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
20.1
10/20 hit at 19.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm xelex is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 20
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 20+ HS (~30 kills at 67.6% HS): 0.718 KPR over ~40 rounds. His Kills line is 28: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (36.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.09
Raw edge
+2.6
Cons. hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.3%
Rating
8.3/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
19.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
61.3%
0 →
Learned
61.3%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
51.4%111 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.5% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 40.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 36% (under 40%) · team 76% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.4 headshots vs line 19.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 68%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 20.4 against a 19.5 line

Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)

  • 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
  • • Model 22.09 vs line 19.5 → +2.59 (13.3%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
  • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
  • • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.82
HS/Map
10.03
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.68
ADR
74.5
KAST
72.5%
HS%
67.6%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.6 · KPR 0.784 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)10.8 · KPR 0.806 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.718
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.95
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.07%
Final projected kills31.61
× realistic HS% (67.6%)22.09
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 19.5. Model: 62.5% before the safety haircut.
891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041line 19.5
Lopsided maps36.4%
~19 HS · 34r40%
Normal32.8%
~23 HS · 42r76.3%
Close maps16.4%
~24 HS · 43r79.4%
Overtime14.4%
~27 HS · 49r92.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
HLTV #4VRS #2HLTV #20VRS #18
MOUZ 76%24% The MongolZ
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.2r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20r
+10% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.4%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Over) · avg 20.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
17.5 Over67.5%
18.5 Over64.9%
19.5 Over61.3%OFFERED
20.5 Over56.9%below BE
21.5 Over51.9%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 20
Line movement
first 19.5→19.5no change
  1. First seen19.5
    Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.74
HS%
64%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
71.9%
K/D
1.33
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
67%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
63.9%
K/D
0.8
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
71.2%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
69.2%
K/D
1.16
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-259z12 Dust2 13-58 Nuke 13-320WOver ✓BO
2026-10-24Liquid17 Ancient 16-138 Inferno 12-1625SplitOver ✓OT
2026-10-11Vitality9 Cache 8-137 Inferno 7-1316LUnder ✗
2026-10-10Spirit11 Dust2 13-79 Mirage 5-1320SplitOver ✓BO
2026-10-09FURIA15 Nuke 13-119 Inferno 13-624WOver ✓
2026-10-05Spirit11 Dust2 13-59 Mirage 13-1120WOver ✓BO
2026-10-04FURIA7 Cache 13-45 Mirage 13-712WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-03M8011 Cache 13-94 Mirage 13-615WUnder ✗
2026-09-19FURIA7 Cache 8-1324 Mirage 19-1631SplitOver ✓OT
2026-09-18Natus Vincere8 Cache 10-1313 Inferno 13-1021SplitOver ✓
2026-09-17NRG12 Cache 11-1312 Inferno 13-524SplitOver ✓BO
2026-09-06Spirit5 Dust2 8-1314 Mirage 13-1119SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-05Vitality14 Dust2 13-1113 Mirage 13-727WOver ✓
2026-08-31Falcons10 Nuke 6-139 Ancient 13-619SplitUnder ✗
2026-08-29Inner Circle7 Ancient 13-49 Mirage 13-516WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-279z5 Cache 13-414 Nuke 13-719WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-21FUT20 Dust2 13-167 Ancient 5-1327LOver ✓OTBO
2026-08-19GamerLegion9 Mirage 13-119 Ancient 19-2218SplitUnder ✗OT
2026-08-16PARIVISION9 Dust2 13-48 Inferno 13-1017WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-14FUT4 Ancient 6-137 Nuke 16-1211SplitUnder ✗OT
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