CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.04
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Edge
+3.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.67
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.7%
Edge
+0.7
L10
50%
dexter
Rifler
dexter
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
57%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 32
BEST OVER · UD 31.5PP32UD31.5SL31.5
▲ L5 37.6 · L20 29.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 32 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
37%
7/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±8.01
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
1/1 hit · avg 39 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
39
Over 32 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.9
7/13 hit at 32
Online
23.8
0/6 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm dexter is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.786 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.1%) or blowout (39.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
35.04
Raw edge
+3.0
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Rating
4.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.7
Line
32
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.1%
0 →
Learned
57.1%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 30-34
All players · Kills
53.2%190 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
  • L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 36.8% at this line
  • Game script fits: blowout 40% (under 40%)
  • Blowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 36.8% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 40% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.07) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 32.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 55%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 32.0 line

  • 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 35.04 vs line 32 → +3.04 (9.5%)
  • • Form L5 100% · L10 50% over this line
  • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
  • • Expected 40.7 rounds · 2-0 65.1% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.68
HS/Map
8.11
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.74
ADR
84
KAST
71.9%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.3 · KPR 0.77 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)13.7 · KPR 0.731 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.786
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.6
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.74%
Final projected kills30.07
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32. Model: 57.6% before the safety haircut.
1618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860line 32
Lopsided maps39.9%
~30 kills · 34r29.7%
Normal36.6%
~38 kills · 44r78.8%
Close maps13%
~38 kills · 44r77.2%
Overtime10.5%
~43 kills · 50r93%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #142VRS #134HLTV #143VRS #132
Off Chops 80%20% Ground Zero
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.0% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.1r
-8% KPR here
Total
40.7r
2-0 sweep65.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)39.9%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Over) · avg 30.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
30 Over63%
31 Over60.3%
32 Over57.1%OFFERED
33 Over53.7%below BE
34 Over50.1%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 32→32no change
  1. First seen32
    Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
43.6%
K/D
1
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.87
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.79
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
1.2
HS%
61.1%
K/D
2.57
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-18NEXVOID21 Dust2 17-1918 Inferno 9-1339LOver ✓OT
2026-10-17Rooster16 Nuke 13-718 Cache 13-234WOver ✓BO
2026-10-16Abyssal18 Dust2 13-715 Inferno 13-333WOver ✓BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero23 Dust2 13-616 Anubis 11-1339SplitOver ✓
2026-10-16FlyQuest22 Dust2 10-1321 Inferno 16-1943LOver ✓OT
2026-09-29FlyQuest7 Inferno 4-1310 Dust2 9-1317LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER15 Inferno 13-812 Dust2 13-927WUnder ✗
2026-09-27FlyQuest6 Inferno 2-1314 Ancient 4-1320LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER17 Ancient 13-410 Dust2 13-327WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-23THUNDER dOWNUNDER14 Nuke 13-714 Inferno 13-728WUnder ✗
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER14 Dust2 13-821 Anubis 10-1335SplitOver ✓
2026-07-18FlyQuest13 Dust2 10-135 Nuke 1-1318LUnder ✗BO
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER15 Dust2 13-1015 Anubis 13-730WUnder ✗
2026-07-17Rooster15 Nuke 13-09 Anubis 13-424WUnder ✗BO
2026-06-04THUNDER dOWNUNDER16 Anubis 10-1310 Inferno 3-1326LUnder ✗BO
2026-05-27SemperFi8 Dust2 9-1316 Nuke 10-1324LUnder ✗
2026-05-16Lynn Vision15 Dust2 13-910 Nuke 10-1325SplitUnder ✗
2026-05-14Kaleido8 Anubis 13-510 Ancient 13-1618SplitUnder ✗OTBO
2026-05-13THUNDER dOWNUNDER16 Anubis 13-535 Dust2 17-1951SplitOver ✓OTBO
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