KillsBetter playTake
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.26
Hit
64.4%
EV+
+11.5%
Edge
+4.3
L10
90%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.92
Hit
62.3%
EV+
+7.8%
Edge
+1.4
L10
90%
#16Ranked 16 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
robo
Nemiga vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
≈ L5 17.0 · L20 16.9Risk · Edge +1.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.41
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.4
5/5 hit at 14.5
Online
15.5
9/15 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm robo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~28 kills at 54.1% HS): 0.649 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 26: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (23.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.92
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
62.3%
EV+
+7.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
62.3%
+7.8 →
Learned
70.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.45) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.9 headshots vs line 14.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 54%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.9 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 15.92 vs line 14.5 → +1.42 (9.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 90% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.68
HS/Map
8.47
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.74
ADR
83
KAST
76.7%
HS%
54.1%
Multi-kill
19.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.5 · KPR 0.717 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)8 · KPR 0.666 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.649
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills28.57
× realistic HS% (54.1%)15.92
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 62.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~13 HS · 35r36.5%
Normal54%
~16 HS · 41r60.5%
Close maps3.6%
~17 HS · 44r71.6%
Overtime18.9%
~19 HS · 50r86.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
19.2r
+3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
-5% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 18.9 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 65.7% | |
| 13.5 Over | 64.4% | |
| 14.5 Over | 62.3% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 57.2% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 52.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1.23
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.7%
K/D
0.86
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.3%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.8%
K/D
1.08
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.17
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 11 Ancient 25-23 | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 4 Cache 7-13 | 11 Nuke 16-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 4 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Dust2 13-4 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 11 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 9 Cache 13-11 | 14 Dust2 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 8 Cache 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 8 Mirage 16-12 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Mirage 22-20 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 8 Cache 13-5 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 5 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 7 Nuke 13-2 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Cache 13-6 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 10 Mirage 16-14 | 8 Nuke 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 7 Cache 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-3 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 7 Cache 13-4 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 10 Dust2 16-13 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































