KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
33.27
Hit
36.3%
EV+
-37.2%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.42
Hit
32.1%
EV+
-44.4%
Edge
+0.4
L10
30%
#277Ranked 277 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Liazz
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
RISK · UNDER 33.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP33.5SL33.5
▲ L5 34.8 · L20 31.4Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 33.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.69
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
0/1 hit · avg 38 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
38
Over 33.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31
6/10 hit at 33.5
Online
31.8
4/9 hit at 33.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Liazz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 33 kills or fewer: below 0.846 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
33.27
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
36.3%
EV+
-37.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.6
Line
33.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
36.3%
-7.6 →
Learned
28.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 31.5-35.5
All players · Kills
40%80 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
- Under risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.61) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.3 kills vs line 33.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 53%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.3 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 37% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 33.27 vs line 33.5 → -0.23 (-0.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.6 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.68
HS/Map
8.34
K/D
1.27
KPR
0.8
ADR
84.1
KAST
75.4%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
20.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.9 · KPR 0.843 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)15.7 · KPR 0.856 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.846
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.09%
Final projected kills32.61
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 33.5. Model: 51.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps42.2%
~28 kills · 34r81.3%
Normal38.7%
~37 kills · 43r33.9%
Close maps13.3%
~36 kills · 43r35.8%
Overtime5.8%
~41 kills · 49r13.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.7r
-2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
18.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
39.6r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)42.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33.5 (Under) · avg 33.3 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
33.5
Nearby lines
| 31.5 Under | 30.1% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 33.2% | below BE |
| 33.5 Under | 36.3% | OFFERED |
| 34.5 Under | 39.3% | below BE |
| 35.5 Under | 42.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33.5
Line movement
first 33.5→33.5no change
- First seen33.5Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.9%
K/D
1.28
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.79
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.26
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
60.3%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.8
HS%
57%
K/D
1.32
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.82
HS%
28.6%
K/D
1.12
Cache
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.8
HS%
33.3%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 33 Dust2 17-19 | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 45 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 12 Cache 13-2 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 19 Anubis 11-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 29 Inferno 16-19 | 41 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 16 Dust2 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18 Inferno 13-8 | 20 Dust2 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 12 Inferno 2-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Ancient 13-4 | 20 Dust2 13-3 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 20 Inferno 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-1 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 20 Nuke 13-5 | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 20 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Anubis 13-5 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | FlyQuest | 21 Dust2 10-13 | 3 Nuke 1-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Rooster | 4 Nuke 13-0 | 24 Anubis 13-4 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 12 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-27 | SemperFi | 14 Dust2 9-13 | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































