KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.79
Hit
53.7%
EV+
-7.1%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.93
Hit
57.3%
EV+
-0.8%
Edge
+1.4
L10
50%
#62Ranked 62 of 277 on the board

Rifler
kauez
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · OVER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5SL16.5
≈ L5 16.8 · L20 16.3Risk · Edge +1.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.39
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
17.1
10/18 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
9
0/2 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kauez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~29 kills at 59.1% HS): 0.632 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.93
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
57.3%
EV+
-0.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.3%
-0.3 →
Learned
57%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.41) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.0 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 59%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 17.0 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.93 vs line 16.5 → +1.43 (8.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.8
HS/Map
8.15
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.1
KAST
71.6%
HS%
59.1%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.2 · KPR 0.778 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Ancient)8.2 · KPR 0.642 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.632
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.85%
Final projected kills31.16
× realistic HS% (59.1%)17.93
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 60.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~15 HS · 37r35.5%
Normal50.8%
~18 HS · 45r62%
Close maps10.3%
~19 HS · 47r68.4%
Overtime12.2%
~22 HS · 53r82.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.4r
+19% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.8r
-2% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 17.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 63.6% | |
| 15.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 16.5 Over | 57.3% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 53.3% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 46.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16→16.5+0.5
- Moved up16 → 16.5Oct 25, 05:28 AM
- Moved down16.5 → 16Oct 25, 05:28 AM
- Moved up16 → 16.5Oct 25, 05:27 AM
- Moved down16.5 → 16Oct 25, 05:27 AM
- Moved up16 → 16.5Oct 25, 05:26 AM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 25, 05:24 AM
- Pulled16Oct 25, 05:24 AM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 25, 05:23 AM
- Pulled16Oct 25, 05:22 AM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 25, 05:22 AM
- Pulled16Oct 25, 04:38 AM
- First seen16Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
57.5%
K/D
1.32
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.64
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.9%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
73.3%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
8.2
KPR
0.41
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.59
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.4
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.65
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 9 Cache 13-5 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 16-14 | 13 Mirage 19-16 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 15 Mirage 16-13 | 10 Inferno 22-19 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 2 Dust2 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 8 Cache 7-13 | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Ancient 4-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 8 Overpass 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 13 Nuke 13-4 | 14 Inferno 12-16 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































