KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.75
Hit
44.3%
EV+
-23.3%
Edge
-0.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.32
Hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.7%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%

Rifler
k1slll
INOX Division vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 29
BEST UNDER · SL 29.5PP29SL29.5
▼ L5 27.2 · L20 28.9Risk · Edge -0.3 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.8
Previous meeting · vs Acend
1/1 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-11 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Ancient 13-3 · Dust2 9-13 · Split
27
Under 29 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.9
13/20 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm k1slll is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.667 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.75
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
44.3%
EV+
-23.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.5
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
53%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
44.5%299 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.41) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.1 kills vs line 29.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 50%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 27.1 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.75 vs line 29 → -0.25 (-0.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.43
HS/Map
7.25
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.65
ADR
84.2
KAST
72.7%
HS%
50.3%
Multi-kill
14.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)14.7 · KPR 0.701 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.7 · KPR 0.668 · 22.3r
Required KPR to clear0.667
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.16%
Final projected kills29.41
Acend gives up (32 series)0% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 51.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.7%
~24 kills · 37r79.9%
Normal34.5%
~30 kills · 46r40.1%
Close maps18.6%
~31 kills · 47r36.4%
Overtime12.2%
~35 kills · 53r16.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
21.2r
+8% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
43.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 27.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 35.3% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 40.8% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 44.3% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 47.8% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 51.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Nuke
11 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
49.4%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.84
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.4%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
48.8%
K/D
0.82
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.64
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.67
HS%
38.5%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BRUTE | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 28 Dust2 7-13 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 43 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Nemiga | 8 Nuke 2-13 | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 14 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | G2 Ares | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | BAKS | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 17 Cache 16-13 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Vexar | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 15 Cache 8-13 | 18 Nuke 11-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | SPARTA | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Inferno 12-16 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | UPGRADE | 11 Anubis 13-8 | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-15 | Drama | 19 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Color | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 18 Dust2 14-16 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-11 | Acend | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 14 Dust2 9-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Black Phoenix | 20 Nuke 13-4 | 6 Dust2 1-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | Nuclear TigeRES | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | The Last Resort | 21 Cache 14-16 | 18 Inferno 13-16 | 39 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INFINITE | 22 Ancient 13-10 | 21 Nuke 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | PCIFIC | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-05 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 20 Nuke 13-8 | 8 Cache 3-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | UNiTY | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































