KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.11
Hit
51.3%
EV+
-11.1%
Edge
+0.6
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.5
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
+1.0
L10
80%
Rifler
doc
DENDELE vs G2
RISK · OVER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5
≈ L5 18.8 · L20 19.1Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±2.0 +2
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
72%
13/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.95
Previous meeting · vs G2
No meeting with G2 in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
19.9
11/14 hit at 16.5
Online
16.3
2/4 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm doc is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~29 kills at 58.1% HS): 0.676 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (23.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.5
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.2%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
42
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.2%
0 →
Learned
54.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
56.5%416 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Blowout loss risk — team only 25% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 72.2% at this line
Game script fits · 42.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%) · team 25% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.2 headshots vs line 16.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 58%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 20.2 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.5 vs line 16.5 → +1 (6.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 13.4%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.44
HS/Map
9.56
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.74
ADR
84.3
KAST
77.2%
HS%
58.1%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)9.4 · KPR 0.71 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Cache)8.1 · KPR 0.726 · 19.3r
Required KPR to clear0.676
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.13
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.05%
Final projected kills30.11
× realistic HS% (58.1%)17.5
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 56.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.1%
~15 HS · 35r33.5%
Normal47.8%
~17 HS · 42r53.4%
Close maps15.7%
~19 HS · 45r62.5%
Overtime13.4%
~21 HS · 51r77%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 25% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
22.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.3r
+1% KPR here
Total
42r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime13.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 20.2 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 60.3% | |
| 15.5 Over | 57.6% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 54.2% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 46.3% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 42.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
54%
K/D
1.07
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
65%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.66
HS%
65%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.93
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.31
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.94
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Legacy | 8 Cache 9-13 | 16 Mirage 17-19 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 8-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 4 Mirage 13-4 | 19 Nuke 8-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 6 Mirage 13-16 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Ancient 16-13 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 10 Cache 7-13 | 10 Mirage 12-16 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 3 Ancient 8-13 | 2 Cache 7-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 14 Inferno 14-16 | 19 Cache 13-9 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 6 Nuke 13-0 | 11 Anubis 13-3 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ |
