KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.55
Hit
45.3%
EV+
-21.5%
Edge
-0.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.36
Hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Edge
-0.6
L10
70%
Rifler
k1slll
INOX Division vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 15
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 14.5Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.93
Previous meeting · vs Acend
1/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-11 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Ancient 13-3 · Dust2 9-13 · Split
11
Under 15 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
14.5
11/20 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm k1slll is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 50.3% HS): below 0.686 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.36
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.5
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.2%
0 →
Learned
51.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 13-17
All players · Headshots
41.8%397 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 62% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 62% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.2 headshots vs line 15.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 50%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 13.2 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.36 vs line 15 → -0.64 (-4.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 43.5 rounds · 2-0 52.2% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.43
HS/Map
7.25
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.65
ADR
84.2
KAST
72.7%
HS%
50.3%
Multi-kill
14.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.2 · KPR 0.679 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.2 · KPR 0.647 · 22.3r
Required KPR to clear0.686
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.81
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.88%
Final projected kills28.55
× realistic HS% (50.3%)14.36
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15. Model: 58.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.7%
~12 HS · 37r76.2%
Normal34.5%
~15 HS · 46r46.1%
Close maps18.6%
~15 HS · 47r43.2%
Overtime12.2%
~17 HS · 53r26%
Match context
Oct 25, 6:00 AM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
21.2r
+8% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
43.5r
2-0 sweep52.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Under) · avg 13.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Under | 27.3% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 37.1% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 51.2% | OFFERED |
| 16 Under | 59.7% | |
| 17 Under | 64.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15→offno change
- Pulled15Oct 25, 05:57 AM
- First seen15Oct 24, 09:22 PM
Map stats
Nuke
11 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
49.4%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.84
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.4%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
48.8%
K/D
0.82
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.64
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.67
HS%
38.5%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BRUTE | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 14 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Nuke 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Nemiga | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | G2 Ares | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | BAKS | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 5 Cache 16-13 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Vexar | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 7 Cache 8-13 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | SPARTA | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Inferno 12-16 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | UPGRADE | 3 Anubis 13-8 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-15 | Drama | 14 Ancient 13-8 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Color | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 7 Dust2 14-16 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-11 | Acend | 4 Ancient 13-3 | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Black Phoenix | 9 Nuke 13-4 | 2 Dust2 1-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | Nuclear TigeRES | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | The Last Resort | 13 Cache 14-16 | 5 Inferno 13-16 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INFINITE | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | PCIFIC | 7 Anubis 13-5 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-05 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 13 Nuke 13-8 | 6 Cache 3-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | UNiTY | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 5 Inferno 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ |
