KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.07
Hit
55.3%
EV+
-4.2%
Edge
+1.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.55
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+1.6
L10
50%

Rifler
bl1x1
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 29
BEST OVER · PP 29PP29UD29.5SL29.5
▼ L5 27.4 · L20 30.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 29 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
56%
9/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.11
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.1
9/16 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bl1x1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.637 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (18.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.07
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
55.3%
EV+
-4.2%
Rating
3/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.3%
-8.7 →
Learned
46.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27-31
All players · Kills
55.5%299 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 56.2% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.21) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.2 kills vs line 29.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 65%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.2 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.07 vs line 29 → +1.07 (3.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 14.9%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
9.81
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.66
ADR
74.9
KAST
71.9%
HS%
65.3%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)15 · KPR 0.662 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)16.2 · KPR 0.713 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.637
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.28
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.23%
Final projected kills31.21
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29. Model: 58.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps18.2%
~25 kills · 38r20.2%
Normal49.8%
~29 kills · 44r47.2%
Close maps17.1%
~32 kills · 49r66.8%
Overtime14.9%
~36 kills · 55r86.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
22.7r
M2 Mirage
22.8r
+8% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32%
Overtime14.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)18.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Over) · avg 28.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Over | 61.6% | |
| 28 Over | 58.9% | |
| 29 Over | 55.3% | OFFERED |
| 30 Over | 49% | below BE |
| 31 Over | 42.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
67.4%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.74
HS%
63.3%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
69.6%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
65.7%
K/D
1.01
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.33
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.08
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Saint Sinners | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 21 Ancient 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 19 Anubis 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 16 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 20 Nuke 13-8 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 18 Cache 13-3 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Enjoy | 18 Mirage 9-13 | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | fnatic | 19 Mirage 8-13 | 8 Cache 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nemiga | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Players | 18 Cache 13-7 | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | SPARTA | 17 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Mirage 3-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | UPGRADE | 10 Ancient 5-13 | 11 Nuke 16-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Just Players | 19 Nuke 12-16 | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Just Players | 23 Nuke 13-10 | 27 Mirage 16-14 | 50 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | BET-M | 19 Ancient 11-13 | 13 Nuke 5-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































