CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
23
Pick
UNDER
Projection
20.19
Hit
49%
EV+
-15.1%
Edge
-2.8
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playNeutral
Line
12
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.45
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Edge
-2.5
L10
60%
viridian
Rifler
viridian
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
57%HIT CHANCE
NEUTRAL · UNDER 12
▲ L5 11.8 · L20 10.2LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 12 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.71
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
1/1 hit · avg 9 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
9
Under 12 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.8
2/5 hit at 12
Online
9.7
9/15 hit at 12
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm viridian is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 12
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 46.8% HS): below 0.68 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.45
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Rating
5.2/10
Exp. rounds
37.7
Line
12
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
57.1%
0 →
Learned
57.1%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 10-14
All players · Headshots
46.1%230 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • Under risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 37.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 74% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.8 headshots vs line 12.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 47%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 10.8 against a 12.0 line

  • 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 9.45 vs line 12 → -2.55 (-21.3%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
  • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
  • • Expected 37.7 rounds · 2-0 63.7% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.9
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
0.82
KPR
0.51
ADR
61
KAST
74.2%
HS%
46.8%
Multi-kill
9.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)4.3 · KPR 0.484 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)5.2 · KPR 0.612 · 18.5r
Required KPR to clear0.68
Base kills (Maps 1-2)20.61
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.03%
Final projected kills20.19
× realistic HS% (46.8%)9.45
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+5.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12. Model: 75.4% before the safety haircut.
123456789101112131415161718192021line 12
Lopsided maps42.8%
~8 HS · 32r85.6%
Normal34.7%
~10 HS · 41r64.6%
Close maps16.9%
~10 HS · 41r65.5%
Overtime5.6%
~12 HS · 47r49.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #142VRS #123HLTV #143VRS #136
Off Chops 74%26% Ground Zero
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.0%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
19.2r
-8% KPR here
M2 Nuke
18.5r
+16% KPR here
Total
37.7r
2-0 sweep63.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)42.8%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12 (Under) · avg 10.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
12
Nearby lines
10 Under43.8%below BE
11 Under50%below BE
12 Under57.1%OFFERED
13 Under60.6%
14 Under63.6%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12
Line movement
first 11.5→offno change
  1. Pulled12
    Oct 25, 10:14 PM
  2. Moved up11.5 → 12
    Oct 24, 02:53 PM
  3. Moved down12 → 11.5
    Oct 24, 02:51 PM
  4. Moved up11.5 → 12
    Oct 24, 02:50 PM
  5. First seen11.5
    Oct 24, 01:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
9.4
KPR
0.46
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.74
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.62
HS%
41.3%
K/D
0.87
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
49.6%
K/D
0.98
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
46%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
8.2
KPR
0.44
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.61
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
6.5
KPR
0.38
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.54
Cache
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.4
HS%
33.3%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-18NEXVOID6 Dust2 17-197 Inferno 9-1313LOver ✗OT
2026-10-17Rooster5 Nuke 13-72 Cache 13-27WUnder ✓BO
2026-10-16Abyssal10 Dust2 13-75 Inferno 13-315WOver ✗BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero4 Dust2 13-65 Anubis 11-139SplitUnder ✓
2026-10-16FlyQuest5 Dust2 10-1310 Inferno 16-1915LOver ✗OT
2026-09-29FlyQuest2 Inferno 4-137 Dust2 9-139LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER3 Inferno 13-88 Dust2 13-911WUnder ✓
2026-09-27FlyQuest1 Inferno 2-133 Ancient 4-134LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER4 Ancient 13-45 Dust2 13-39WUnder ✓BO
2026-09-23THUNDER dOWNUNDER9 Nuke 13-77 Inferno 13-716WOver ✗
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER5 Dust2 13-83 Inferno 13-18WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER3 Nuke 13-53 Inferno 11-136SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-08-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER7 Inferno 13-86 Anubis 13-513WOver ✗BO
2026-02-08THUNDER dOWNUNDER7 Overpass 6-132 Nuke 10-139LUnder ✓
2026-02-08Mindfreak8 Overpass 13-114 Nuke 11-1312SplitUnder ✗
2026-02-07Underground10 Nuke 9-135 Overpass 13-1015SplitOver ✗
2026-02-07Mindfreak1 Anubis 3-132 Nuke 4-133LUnder ✓BO
2026-01-31Rooster3 Nuke 3-139 Dust2 13-912SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-01-31Rooster3 Anubis 4-133 Nuke 1-136LUnder ✓BO
2026-01-31Rooster9 Nuke 13-83 Overpass 13-712WUnder ✗
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