KillsBetter playRisk
Line
23.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.3
Hit
47.7%
EV+
-17.3%
Edge
+0.8
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.81
Hit
45.4%
EV+
-21.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
30%
Rifler · IGL
Aleksib
Natus Vincere vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 23.5
BEST OVER · UD 22.5PP23.5UD22.5
▲ L5 27.6 · L20 21.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 23.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.51
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.9
8/20 hit at 23.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Aleksib is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 24+ kills: 0.509 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.9%) or blowout (27.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.3
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
47.7%
EV+
-17.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
46.2
Line
23.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.7%
0 →
Learned
47.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 21.5-25.5
All players · Kills
57.6%158 picks
This player
50%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 46.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 28% (under 40%) · team 63% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 1.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.4 kills vs line 23.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 49%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.4 against a 23.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.3 vs line 23.5 → +0.8 (3.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.2 rounds · 2-0 52.9% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.95
HS/Map
5.33
K/D
0.86
KPR
0.51
ADR
61.5
KAST
76.3%
HS%
48.6%
Multi-kill
10.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.7 · KPR 0.531 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.6 · KPR 0.528 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.509
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.46
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.67%
Final projected kills24.3
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 23.5. Model: 53.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~20 kills · 39r30.9%
Normal45.6%
~25 kills · 48r53.7%
Close maps16.7%
~26 kills · 49r58.7%
Overtime10%
~29 kills · 55r72.3%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 63% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
+8% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24r
+8% KPR here
Total
46.2r
2-0 sweep52.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23.5 (Over) · avg 22.4 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
23.5
Nearby lines
| 21.5 Over | 55.1% | below BE |
| 22.5 Over | 50.5% | below BE |
| 23.5 Over | 47.7% | OFFERED |
| 24.5 Over | 44.9% | below BE |
| 25.5 Over | 40.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23.5
Line movement
first 23.5→23.5no change
- First seen23.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.56
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
65.6%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.56
HS%
40.5%
K/D
0.82
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.39
HS%
59%
K/D
0.65
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.1%
K/D
0.96
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.5
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.81
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.4
HS%
50%
K/D
0.74
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Dust2 13-5 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 29 Dust2 22-19 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 17 Anubis 19-15 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 8 Nuke 13-5 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 6 Ancient 2-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 26 Inferno 14-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 18 Ancient 16-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 1-13 | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 2 Mirage 13-3 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
