KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.3
Hit
45.4%
EV+
-21.4%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.83
Hit
53.6%
EV+
-7.2%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%
#237Ranked 237 of 277 on the board

AWPer
saffee
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 29.5
BEST UNDER · PP 29.5PP29.5UD28.5SL29.5
≈ L5 27.2 · L20 27.6Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.02
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.1
10/16 hit at 29.5
Online
29.8
3/4 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm saffee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.643 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.3
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
45.4%
EV+
-21.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.4%
-8.4 →
Learned
37%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.19) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.3 kills vs line 29.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 28%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.3 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.3 vs line 29.5 → -0.2 (-0.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.82
HS/Map
3.83
K/D
1
KPR
0.65
ADR
72.6
KAST
72%
HS%
27.7%
Multi-kill
13.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14 · KPR 0.626 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)16.2 · KPR 0.697 · 23.4r
Required KPR to clear0.643
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.39
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.66%
Final projected kills30.19
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 51.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~25 kills · 39r83.3%
Normal44.8%
~29 kills · 46r52.1%
Close maps18.6%
~31 kills · 49r38.5%
Overtime12.2%
~35 kills · 55r17.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Cache
22.5r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.4r
+7% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 28.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 32% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 38.6% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 45.4% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 52.1% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 56.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
34.2%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.71
HS%
28.5%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
20%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
21.5%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
21.3%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 9 Cache 13-8 | 23 Dust2 22-18 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 7 Inferno 3-13 | 19 Anubis 16-14 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 8 Cache 7-13 | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 7 Inferno 2-13 | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 19 Anubis 4-13 | 11 Cache 11-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 16 Cache 13-9 | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 22 Cache 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 12 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Cache 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 17 Cache 11-13 | 8 Nuke 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 9 Mirage 2-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 21 Inferno 12-16 | 15 Nuke 13-3 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 12 Nuke 13-10 | 27 Inferno 17-19 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 25 Mirage 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 14 Cache 10-13 | 11 Inferno 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































