KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.44
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.5%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.17
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
+0.7
L10
50%

Rifler
nbqq
BRUTE vs INFINITE
RISK · OVER 13.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP13.5UD13.5SL13.5
▼ L5 12.6 · L20 14.8Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.71
Previous meeting · vs INFINITE
No meeting with INFINITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
12.9
4/8 hit at 13.5
Online · this match
16
8/12 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nbqq is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~28 kills at 50.8% HS): 0.61 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72.5%) or blowout (30.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.17
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.4%
0 →
Learned
50.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
56.8%250 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.84) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.8 headshots vs line 13.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 51%. Next: vs INFINITE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 13.8 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.17 vs line 13.5 → +0.67 (5.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 72.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.53
HS/Map
7.38
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.68
ADR
78.8
KAST
72.3%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
15.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.66 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.8 · KPR 0.697 · 22.2r
Required KPR to clear0.61
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.6
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.27%
Final projected kills29.22
× realistic HS% (50.8%)14.17
INFINITE gives up (70 series)+4.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 50.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.4%
~12 HS · 37r33.9%
Normal42.9%
~15 HS · 45r53.5%
Close maps12.3%
~15 HS · 47r58.3%
Overtime14.4%
~17 HS · 53r70.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.2r
+3% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep72.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 13.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 59.8% | |
| 12.5 Over | 56.4% | below BE |
| 13.5 Over | 50.4% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 46.2% | below BE |
| 15.5 Over | 42.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→13.5no change
- First seen13.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.91
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
60%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
40%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.85
HS%
62.9%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | INOX Division | 5 Nuke 13-3 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 6 Cache 8-13 | 4 Inferno 13-8 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 3 Nuke 13-4 | 4 Mirage 3-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 8 Mirage 13-16 | 13 Inferno 19-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 6 Inferno 13-6 | 7 Mirage 13-5 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 9 Inferno 16-13 | 9 Dust2 13-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 10 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 7 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 2 Mirage 6-13 | 3 Dust2 13-9 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 2 Cache 16-12 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 4 Mirage 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 9 Cache 7-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 8 Anubis 13-8 | 8 Dust2 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 7 Mirage 13-4 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 4 Mirage 3-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |


















































































































































































