KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.02
Hit
46%
EV+
-20.4%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.78
Hit
48%
EV+
-16.9%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%
Rifler
2high
UNiTY vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 13
BEST UNDER · UD 13.5PP13UD13.5
▼ L5 12.8 · L20 13.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 13 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.57
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.5
2/4 hit at 13
Online · this match
13.1
7/15 hit at 13
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm 2high is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 51.1% HS): below 0.619 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.78
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
48%
EV+
-16.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.1
Line
13
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48%
0 →
Learned
48%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 11-15
All players · Headshots
44.9%283 picks
This player
20%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 41.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 39% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.4 headshots vs line 13.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 51%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 13.4 against a 13.0 line
Biggest risk: 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.78 vs line 13 → -0.22 (-1.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 41.1 rounds · 2-0 54.8% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.34
HS/Map
6.82
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.65
ADR
73.3
KAST
73.3%
HS%
51.1%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.5 · KPR 0.668 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.2 · KPR 0.575 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.619
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.44
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.68%
Final projected kills25.02
× realistic HS% (51.1%)12.78
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13. Model: 51.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.3%
~11 HS · 35r67.6%
Normal43.6%
~14 HS · 45r44.3%
Close maps13.3%
~14 HS · 44r45.2%
Overtime5.8%
~16 HS · 50r32.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 1:00 PM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 39% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
19.5r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.6r
-8% KPR here
Total
41.1r
2-0 sweep54.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13 (Under) · avg 13.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13
Nearby lines
| 11 Under | 35.6% | below BE |
| 12 Under | 41.7% | below BE |
| 13 Under | 48% | OFFERED |
| 14 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 56% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 13→13no change
- First seen13Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
54.7%
K/D
1.14
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
50%
K/D
0.91
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.89
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.68
HS%
46.3%
K/D
1.31
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
40%
K/D
0.67
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
1.13
HS%
52.9%
K/D
3.4
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Acend | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 2 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 2 Cache 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2 Mirage 13-6 | 6 Cache 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 5 Inferno 13-1 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 11 Ancient 16-14 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Ancient 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 11 Cache 13-8 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 6 Mirage 12-16 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 6 Cache 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Anubis 13-2 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
