KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.93
Hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.1%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.31
Hit
41.9%
EV+
-27.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%
#253Ranked 253 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
krabeni
FUT vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 31
BEST UNDER · UD 31.5PP31UD31.5SL30.5
▲ L5 31.4 · L20 28.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 31 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.68
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.4
10/16 hit at 31
Online
30.5
2/4 hit at 31
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Krabeni is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.771 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.93
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.7%
+8.7 →
Learned
51.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 29-33
All players · Kills
43.7%215 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.3) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.8 kills vs line 31.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 57%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.8 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.93 vs line 31 → -1.07 (-3.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.4
HS/Map
8.2
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.1
KAST
74.2%
HS%
56.9%
Multi-kill
16.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15 · KPR 0.789 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.3 · KPR 0.685 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.771
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.54
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.80%
Final projected kills29.3
Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 31. Model: 61.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~25 kills · 34r85.1%
Normal59.4%
~31 kills · 41r51.3%
Close maps10.5%
~32 kills · 43r40.8%
Overtime7.8%
~37 kills · 49r16.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.2r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21r
-12% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Under) · avg 31.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Under | 23.8% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 34.3% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 42.7% | OFFERED |
| 32 Under | 52.6% | below BE |
| 33 Under | 58.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
58.2%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
53.6%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.81
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
55.9%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.92
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.4
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.51
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.3%
K/D
0.88
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.78
HS%
72.2%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 17 Nuke 13-9 | 21 Ancient 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 20 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 20 Dust2 10-13 | 14 Anubis 13-3 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 30 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 18 Cache 13-10 | 20 Anubis 13-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 17 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Anubis 13-7 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 16 Nuke 12-16 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 17 Ancient 13-3 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-19 | Poland | 23 Anubis 9-13 | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 36 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 13 Nuke 10-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 8 Overpass 5-13 | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 10 Overpass 2-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 19 Anubis 13-11 | 3 Overpass 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































