KillsBetter playLean
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.3
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.9%
Edge
+3.3
L10
90%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.62
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.8%
Edge
+1.6
L10
80%
Rifler
syph0
Nemiga vs Aurora
LEAN · OVER 14
BEST OVER · PP 14PP14UD14.5
▲ L5 20.4 · L20 16.9
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±7.07
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
No meeting with Aurora in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.8
4/6 hit at 14
Online
16.1
8/14 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SYPH0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~28 kills at 53.3% HS): 0.621 KPR over ~42 rounds. His Kills line is 26: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.7%) or blowout (28.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.62
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.8%
Rating
2.8/10
Exp. rounds
42.3
Line
14
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
55.6%
0 →
Learned
55.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
57.9%340 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Blowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 28% (under 40%) · team 28% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 3.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.4 headshots vs line 14.0 (8/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 53%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.4 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.62 vs line 14 → +1.62 (11.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42.3 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.9
HS/Map
8.47
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.73
ADR
80.3
KAST
73.6%
HS%
53.3%
Multi-kill
17.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.7 · KPR 0.733 · 19.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.9 · KPR 0.657 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.31
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.02%
Final projected kills29.3
× realistic HS% (53.3%)15.62
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 59% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.1%
~13 HS · 36r36.4%
Normal45.2%
~16 HS · 43r52.3%
Close maps10%
~17 HS · 45r58.2%
Overtime16.7%
~19 HS · 51r69.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.8r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.5r
-7% KPR here
Total
42.3r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 19.4 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 60.5% | |
| 13 Over | 58.3% | |
| 14 Over | 55.6% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 47% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→14no change
- First seen14Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
45.3%
K/D
1.03
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
58.4%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
1.01
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | BetBoom | 1 Anubis 3-13 | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 32 Ancient 25-23 | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 2 Cache 7-13 | 20 Nuke 16-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 9 Anubis 13-5 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 8 Cache 13-11 | 17 Dust2 16-13 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 8 Cache 13-6 | 3 Ancient 13-8 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 7 Mirage 16-12 | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 14 Mirage 22-20 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 9 Cache 13-5 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 7 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 10 Nuke 13-2 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Cache 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 11 Cache 13-10 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-3 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Cache 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 12 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Anubis 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
