KillsBetter playLean
Line
24
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.45
Hit
57.6%
EV+
-0.3%
Edge
+2.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.45
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.3%
Edge
+0.9
L10
60%
#57Ranked 57 of 277 on the board

Rifler
cobrazera
The MongolZ vs Vitality
LEAN · OVER 24
BEST OVER · PP 24PP24UD24.5SL24.5
▼ L5 28.4 · L20 30.1
Hit rates at 24 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
80%
16/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.98
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
No meeting with Vitality in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.1
16/20 hit at 24
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cobrazera is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 19.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.571 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.45
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
57.6%
EV+
-0.3%
Rating
5.2/10
Exp. rounds
42
Line
24
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.6%
+1.7 →
Learned
59.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 22-26
All players · Kills
67%97 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.62) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.2 kills vs line 23.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 59%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.2 against a 23.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.45 vs line 24 → +2.45 (10.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
8.82
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.7
ADR
76.4
KAST
71.5%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)13.4 · KPR 0.657 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)12.2 · KPR 0.581 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.571
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.97
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.38%
Final projected kills25.62
Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24. Model: 65.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~22 kills · 35r30.8%
Normal38.1%
~27 kills · 43r66.9%
Close maps27.2%
~28 kills · 45r75.2%
Overtime7.8%
~32 kills · 51r90.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 19.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.3r
-12% KPR here
Total
42r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24 (Over) · avg 29.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
24
Nearby lines
| 22 Over | 62.2% | |
| 23 Over | 60.2% | |
| 24 Over | 57.6% | OFFERED |
| 25 Over | 54.2% | below BE |
| 26 Over | 50.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24
Line movement
first 23.5→24+0.5
- Moved up23.5 → 24Oct 25, 04:14 AM
- First seen23.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
64.2%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
59.6%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.39
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.18
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.05
Cache
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 15 Inferno 12-16 | 18 Nuke 13-2 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 12 Cache 4-13 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 14 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 20 Inferno 9-13 | 20 Nuke 11-13 | 40 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 13 Inferno 8-13 | 14 Overpass 8-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 18 Ancient 13-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 16 Mirage 16-14 | 17 Overpass 13-3 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 13 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | Liquid | 22 Mirage 11-13 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-20 | B8 | 20 Ancient 11-13 | 15 Nuke 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | Aurora | 13 Overpass 11-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | Falcons | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































