KillsBetter playLean
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.37
Hit
60%
EV+
+3.9%
Edge
+2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.86
Hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.3%
Edge
+1.4
L10
50%
Rifler
volt
INFINITE vs BRUTE
RISK · OVER 14.5
▼ L5 13.8 · L20 15.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
9/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.23
Previous meeting · vs BRUTE
No meeting with BRUTE in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.6
8/13 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
13.5
1/4 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm volt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 45.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55.9% HS): 0.542 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (62.5%) or blowout (16.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.86
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.3%
Rating
4.8/10
Exp. rounds
47.9
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.1%
0 →
Learned
59.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
59.2%414 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 52.9% at this line
Game script fits · 47.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 45% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.3 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 56%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.3 against a 14.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 15.86 vs line 14.5 → +1.36 (9.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 47.9 rounds · 2-0 62.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.53
HS/Map
7.56
K/D
0.83
KPR
0.57
ADR
66.4
KAST
67.9%
HS%
55.9%
Multi-kill
12.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.9 · KPR 0.598 · 23.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.9 · KPR 0.579 · 24.4r
Required KPR to clear0.542
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.18
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.66%
Final projected kills28.37
× realistic HS% (55.9%)15.86
BRUTE gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 66.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.9%
~13 HS · 40r36%
Normal52.6%
~15 HS · 47r57.1%
Close maps13.8%
~17 HS · 51r71.1%
Overtime16.7%
~19 HS · 57r84.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 45.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 45% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.5r
+8% KPR here
M2 Dust2
24.4r
+4% KPR here
Total
47.9r
2-0 sweep62.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 14.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 65.9% | |
| 13.5 Over | 62.8% | |
| 14.5 Over | 59.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 51% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 41.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 25, 10:00 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.88
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
58.8%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.52
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.74
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.54
HS%
38.8%
K/D
0.83
Cache
3 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.47
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.68
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
59%
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Envy | 9 Ancient 8-13 | 3 Dust2 1-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Eternal Fire | 2 Cache 1-13 | 15 Dust2 20-22 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | WBT | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | G2 Ares | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 10 Ancient 14-16 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | SAW | 5 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Ancient 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Wildcard | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | UNiTY | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | SAW | 4 Cache 13-8 | 13 Ancient 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | RBLS | 11 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Fluxo | 9 Mirage 20-22 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | GenOne | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | NT | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Dust2 19-16 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | SAW | 7 Inferno 9-13 | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 7 Ancient 5-13 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | 1win | 6 Dust2 9-13 | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INOX Division | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | QUAZAR | 8 Cache 13-9 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
