KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.45
Hit
47.6%
EV+
-17.5%
Edge
-1.6
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.49
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.6%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
AWPer
r1nkle
G2 vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5UD9.5
▲ L5 10.6 · L20 8.8Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.81
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
8.8
14/20 hit at 9.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm r1nkle is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 32.1% HS): below 0.729 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.49
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.6%
Rating
1.4/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.5%
0 →
Learned
50.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
50.7%140 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 17% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 76% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.1 headshots vs line 9.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 32%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.1 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.49 vs line 9.5 → -1.01 (-10.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.8
HS/Map
4.42
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.57
ADR
62.1
KAST
72%
HS%
32.1%
Multi-kill
13.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)3.9 · KPR 0.617 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)4.6 · KPR 0.681 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.729
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.17%
Final projected kills26.45
× realistic HS% (32.1%)8.49
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 64.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~7 HS · 34r81.2%
Normal44.2%
~8 HS · 40r66.8%
Close maps14.1%
~9 HS · 43r57.7%
Overtime16.7%
~10 HS · 49r42%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.5r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.1r
+15% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 9.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 29.8% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 38.1% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 50.5% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 57.4% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 63.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
37%
K/D
1.04
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32%
K/D
1.23
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
35.1%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
25.9%
K/D
1.27
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
25.4%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.48
HS%
33.3%
K/D
0.75
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.38
HS%
22.2%
K/D
0.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Aurora | 3 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 14-16 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 2 Nuke 11-13 | 10 Dust2 19-22 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 5 Ancient 7-13 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 7-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 1 Mirage 10-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Anubis 16-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Dust2 13-3 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 3 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Ancient 13-4 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 2 Ancient 13-8 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 2 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 5 Mirage 19-17 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 1 Dust2 9-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 1 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Inferno 19-16 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 9 Anubis 16-12 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 2 Anubis 13-3 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ |
