CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.87
Hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.7%
Edge
+0.9
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.25
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-5.9%
Edge
-0.3
L10
30%
MiQ
Rifler
MiQ
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
53%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · PP 30PP30UD30.5SL30.5
▼ L5 26.4 · L20 28.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.69
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.7
3/12 hit at 30
Online
29.5
4/8 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm MiQ is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.679 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.1%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.87
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.7%
Rating
2.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.7%
+0.3 →
Learned
53%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
54.2%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 49.2% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge +0.9 below ±3.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 44.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 57% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.8 kills vs line 29.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 52%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 27.8 against a 29.0 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 30.87 vs line 30 → +0.87 (2.9%)
  • • Form L5 20% · L10 30% over this line
  • • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
  • • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 54.1% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.2
HS/Map
7.35
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.65
ADR
74.9
KAST
71.5%
HS%
51.8%
Multi-kill
14.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.7 · KPR 0.691 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)12.8 · KPR 0.604 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.679
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.69
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.74%
Final projected kills28.48
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-3.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 49.2% before the safety haircut.
15161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051line 30
Lopsided maps26.7%
~26 kills · 37r18.8%
Normal46.6%
~32 kills · 45r56.1%
Close maps16.7%
~33 kills · 47r65.7%
Overtime10%
~37 kills · 53r86%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #77VRS #71HLTV #132VRS #145
NEXVOID 58%42% Alter Ego
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
22.9r
+6% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.3r
-8% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep54.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 27.8 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
28 Over61%
29 Over57.1%below BE
30 Over52.7%OFFERED
31 Over48.2%below BE
32 Over43.9%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 29→30+1
  1. Moved up29 → 30
    Oct 25, 09:33 AM
  2. Moved down30 → 29
    Oct 25, 09:32 AM
  3. Moved up29 → 30
    Oct 25, 09:32 AM
  4. First seen29
    Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
50.3%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
59.2%
K/D
0.84
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.7%
K/D
0.79
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
41%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.07
Cache
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.87
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-23Rare Atom13 Dust2 10-1313 Ancient 11-1326LUnder ✗
2026-10-22Morningstar17 Dust2 13-615 Ancient 13-732WOver ✓
2026-10-21Chinggis Warriors5 Inferno 1-1312 Cache 13-1017SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-10-20Vitalem Aerem12 Dust2 5-1317 Inferno 13-1029SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-10-18FlyQuest13 Ancient 13-715 Dust2 6-1328SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-18Off Chops20 Dust2 19-1714 Inferno 13-934WOver ✓OT
2026-10-17FlyQuest19 Ancient 16-1410 Dust2 2-1329SplitUnder ✗OTBO
2026-10-15Rooster19 Anubis 13-99 Inferno 13-428WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-15Mindfreak15 Cache 13-78 Inferno 13-523WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-11Chinggis Warriors13 Nuke 13-919 Ancient 7-1332SplitOver ✓
2026-10-105star8 Ancient 13-520 Inferno 12-1628SplitUnder ✗OTBO
2026-10-08The Huns19 Ancient 13-107 Inferno 13-526WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-29Lynn Vision12 Ancient 11-1323 Nuke 13-1135SplitOver ✓
2026-09-28The Huns24 Nuke 22-2020 Ancient 13-1144WOver ✓OT
2026-09-22bLight blue16 Dust2 13-119 Inferno 13-325WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-03Chinggis Warriors18 Nuke 11-1316 Ancient 10-1334LOver ✓
2026-09-02Lynn Vision11 Inferno 8-1310 Dust2 7-1321LUnder ✗
2026-09-02FlyQuest10 Inferno 7-1313 Anubis 11-1323LUnder ✗
2026-09-02Kaleido13 Ancient 13-320 Inferno 13-1033WOver ✓BO
2026-09-01Rare Atom3 Dust2 1-1318 Ancient 13-921SplitUnder ✗BO
CS2 Lab is 21+

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