KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.1
Hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.5%
Edge
-1.9
L10
60%
Loading…
Rifler
KWERTZZ
UNiTY vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 30
BEST UNDER · PP 30PP30UD29.5
≈ L5 28.6 · L20 29.2Risk · Edge -1.9 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.08
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
26.8
3/4 hit at 30
Online · this match
29.9
8/15 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KWERTZZ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.73 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.1
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.5%
Rating
4.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.1
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.4%
0 →
Learned
53.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 28-32
All players · Kills
45.3%417 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 57.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 41.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 39% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.8 kills vs line 30.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 70%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.8 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.1 vs line 30 → -1.9 (-6.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 41.1 rounds · 2-0 54.8% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.61
HS/Map
10.16
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.71
ADR
74.6
KAST
71.7%
HS%
69.5%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.6 · KPR 0.656 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.5 · KPR 0.731 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.73
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.68%
Final projected kills28.1
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30. Model: 64.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.3%
~24 kills · 35r87.7%
Normal43.6%
~30 kills · 45r44.7%
Close maps13.3%
~30 kills · 44r46.7%
Overtime5.8%
~34 kills · 50r21.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 1:00 PM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 39% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
19.5r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.6r
+7% KPR here
Total
41.1r
2-0 sweep54.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Under) · avg 28.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Under | 40.3% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 47% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 53.4% | OFFERED |
| 31 Under | 58.8% | |
| 32 Under | 61.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
67.8%
K/D
1.06
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
73.5%
K/D
1.21
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
65.3%
K/D
1.1
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
70.9%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.62
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.5
HS%
77.8%
K/D
0.6
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
1.33
HS%
80%
K/D
2.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Acend | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 19 Dust2 13-8 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 23 Ancient 13-11 | 12 Cache 6-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Cache 7-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Cache 3-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 20 Mirage 13-6 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 18 Dust2 13-5 | 15 Cache 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 16 Dust2 7-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 24 Ancient 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 15 Cache 13-8 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 18 Mirage 12-16 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 13 Cache 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 14 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 20 Anubis 13-2 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
