KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.82
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
-1.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.8
Hit
43.2%
EV+
-25.2%
Edge
-0.2
L10
30%

Rifler
doc
DENDELE vs Legacy
RISK · UNDER 30
BEST UNDER · PP 30PP30UD29.5SL29.5
▼ L5 29.4 · L20 32.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
28%
5/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.76
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
33.6
3/13 hit at 30
Online
29.8
2/5 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm doc is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.741 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.82
Raw edge
-1.2
Cons. hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.1%
+0.9 →
Learned
46%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28-32
All players · Kills
44.1%270 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 27.8% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 27.8% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.57) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.5 kills vs line 30.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 57%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.5 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.82 vs line 30 → -1.18 (-3.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.28
HS/Map
9.33
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.75
ADR
84
KAST
77.7%
HS%
57.3%
Multi-kill
18%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15 · KPR 0.705 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)13.6 · KPR 0.715 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.741
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.63%
Final projected kills28.57
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30. Model: 56% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.8%
~24 kills · 34r79.9%
Normal51.7%
~29 kills · 41r54.7%
Close maps13.5%
~31 kills · 43r44.9%
Overtime11%
~35 kills · 49r24.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
M2 Cache
19.1r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)24.5%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Under) · avg 32.5 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Under | 39% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 42.1% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 45.1% | OFFERED |
| 31 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 50.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.75
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.12
Cache
8 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.76
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.66
HS%
65%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
58%
K/D
1.31
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.92
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.94
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 24 Nuke 8-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 12 Mirage 13-16 | 5 Cache 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 15 Mirage 13-11 | 17 Nuke 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 23 Mirage 13-9 | 23 Ancient 16-13 | 46 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 22 Ancient 13-7 | 18 Cache 13-7 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-6 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 18 Cache 13-3 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 11 Cache 7-13 | 21 Mirage 12-16 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 23 Inferno 14-16 | 28 Cache 13-9 | 51 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 19 Anubis 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 20 Nuke 13-0 | 21 Anubis 13-3 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 18 Anubis 13-6 | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 18 Cache 13-11 | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































