KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.48
Hit
47%
EV+
-18.6%
Edge
-3.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.28
Hit
41.5%
EV+
-28.1%
Edge
-0.2
L10
50%
AWPer
torzsi
MOUZ vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5UD9.5
▲ L5 11.2 · L20 9.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 42% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.56
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.9
9/20 hit at 9.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm torzsi is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 32.6% HS): below 0.725 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.28
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
41.5%
EV+
-28.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41.5%
0 →
Learned
41.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
50.7%140 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 40.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 76% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.6 headshots vs line 9.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 33%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.6 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.28 vs line 9.5 → -0.22 (-2.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
4.97
K/D
1.26
KPR
0.72
ADR
71.2
KAST
79.3%
HS%
32.6%
Multi-kill
17.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)4.3 · KPR 0.658 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)5 · KPR 0.769 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.725
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.67
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills28.48
× realistic HS% (32.6%)9.28
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 52.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps36.4%
~8 HS · 34r72.9%
Normal32.8%
~10 HS · 42r50.3%
Close maps16.4%
~10 HS · 43r47.7%
Overtime14.4%
~11 HS · 49r32.8%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.2r
-12% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 9.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 24.5% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 32.8% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 41.5% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 50.1% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 55.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.61
HS%
26%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
28.8%
K/D
1.63
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.19
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
36%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
38.1%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
34.1%
K/D
1.35
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 9z | 2 Dust2 13-5 | 6 Nuke 13-3 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 10 Ancient 16-13 | 6 Inferno 12-16 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 2 Cache 8-13 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 1 Mirage 13-11 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-4 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 6 Cache 13-9 | 4 Mirage 13-6 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 1 Cache 8-13 | 3 Mirage 19-16 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 10-13 | 4 Inferno 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 4 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Mirage 13-7 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 3 Ancient 13-4 | 2 Mirage 13-5 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 3 Dust2 13-16 | 5 Ancient 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 14 Ancient 19-22 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 2 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Nuke 16-12 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
