KillsRisk
Line
33.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.97
Hit
57.5%
EV+
-0.4%
Edge
+2.5
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.36
Hit
59.8%
EV+
+3.6%
Edge
+1.4
L10
50%
#37Ranked 37 of 277 on the board

AWPer
molodoy
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 12
BEST OVER · UD 11.5PP12UD11.5SL11.5
≈ L5 12.8 · L20 12.6Risk · Edge +1.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.29
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.6
9/20 hit at 12
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm molodoy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~34 kills at 38.1% HS): 0.67 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (24.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.36
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
59.8%
EV+
+3.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
12
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.8%
+8.1 →
Learned
67.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10-14
All players · Headshots
59.7%134 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.4 headshots vs line 12.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 38%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.4 against a 12.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.36 vs line 12 → +1.36 (11.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.45
HS/Map
6.28
K/D
1.26
KPR
0.77
ADR
76.6
KAST
73.4%
HS%
38.1%
Multi-kill
19.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.5 · KPR 0.754 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.1 · KPR 0.774 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.67
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.92
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills35.7
× realistic HS% (38.1%)13.36
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12. Model: 66% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~11 HS · 40r33.8%
Normal45%
~14 HS · 48r58.6%
Close maps20.8%
~14 HS · 50r66.5%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 56r80.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
-1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
+1% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12 (Over) · avg 12.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12
Nearby lines
| 10 Over | 66.1% | |
| 11 Over | 64.2% | |
| 12 Over | 59.8% | OFFERED |
| 13 Over | 52% | below BE |
| 14 Over | 42.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12
Line movement
first 12→12no change
- First seen12Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.75
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.31
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.81
HS%
39.2%
K/D
1.45
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.24
Cache
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
33.7%
K/D
1.13
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.74
HS%
40%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.8
HS%
40%
K/D
1.35
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.43
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 7 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 16-19 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 3 Cache 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 7 Nuke 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-3 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 6 Cache 4-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 6 Cache 5-13 | 4 Anubis 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 3 Cache 13-8 | 11 Mirage 16-19 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 3 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Nuke 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 16 Ancient 14-16 | 2 Dust2 3-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 1 Ancient 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 5 Cache 11-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































