KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.6
Hit
62.2%
EV+
+7.7%
Edge
+3.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.1
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.9%
Edge
+0.6
L10
50%
Rifler
b1t
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · PP 30PP30UD30.5
≈ L5 30.0 · L20 30.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.91
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.9
11/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm b1t is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.713 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.2%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.6
Raw edge
+3.6
Cons. hit
62.2%
EV+
+7.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
62.2%
0 →
Learned
62.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
54.2%334 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 42.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 26% (under 40%) · team 44% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.7 kills vs line 29.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 60%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.7 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 33.6 vs line 30 → +3.6 (12.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.2% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.43
HS/Map
9.2
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.7
KAST
77.1%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)14.5 · KPR 0.687 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)16.5 · KPR 0.797 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.713
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.71%
Final projected kills31
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 62.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~28 kills · 35r32.8%
Normal46.9%
~34 kills · 43r72.9%
Close maps16.7%
~36 kills · 45r81.1%
Overtime10%
~41 kills · 51r94.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
21.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
+20% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 29.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 67% | |
| 29 Over | 64.9% | |
| 30 Over | 62.2% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 58.9% | |
| 32 Over | 55.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 29→30+1
- Back on board29 → 30Oct 25, 06:59 PM
- Pulled29Oct 25, 03:45 PM
- First seen29Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.85
HS%
58.5%
K/D
1.41
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.5%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.15
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
60.3%
K/D
0.91
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.19
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 16 Nuke 13-11 | 24 Dust2 22-19 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 13 Cache 10-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 21 Anubis 19-15 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 18 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 2 Anubis 5-13 | 20 Nuke 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 13 Cache 13-10 | 22 Inferno 10-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 18 Nuke 8-13 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 18 Nuke 13-9 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 16 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 11 Ancient 2-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 20 Inferno 14-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 12 Dust2 3-13 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 19 Nuke 8-13 | 27 Ancient 16-13 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 19 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 6 Dust2 1-13 | 24 Anubis 8-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 21 Mirage 13-3 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 19 Ancient 13-8 | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ |
