KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.49
Hit
45%
EV+
-22.0%
Edge
-1.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.05
Hit
59.9%
EV+
+3.8%
Edge
+2.0
L10
40%

AWPer
youka
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
LEAN · OVER 11
PP11
▲ L5 14.0 · L20 13.2
Hit rates at 11 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
53%
8/15
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.91
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 15 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
13.2
8/15 hit at 11
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm youka is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~28 kills at 43.6% HS): 0.567 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (24.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.05
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
59.9%
EV+
+3.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
11
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.9%
-2.6 →
Learned
57.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 9-13
All players · Headshots
58.7%104 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 70% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 53.3% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 53.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.65) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.1 headshots vs line 11.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 44%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 12.1 against a 11.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.05 vs line 11 → +2.05 (18.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 12.9%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
15.13
HS/Map
6.6
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.65
ADR
65.3
KAST
73.8%
HS%
43.6%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.9 · KPR 0.619 · 22.1r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.7 · KPR 0.697 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.567
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.29
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.95%
Final projected kills29.01
× realistic HS% (43.6%)13.05
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11. Model: 70% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.8%
~11 HS · 37r41.7%
Normal52%
~13 HS · 45r66.2%
Close maps10.3%
~14 HS · 48r73.1%
Overtime12.9%
~16 HS · 54r85.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22.1r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22.4r
+8% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.2%
Overtime12.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Over) · avg 12.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
| 9 Over | 66% | |
| 10 Over | 63.6% | |
| 11 Over | 59.9% | OFFERED |
| 12 Over | 55.6% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 50% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11→11no change
- First seen11Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
47.8%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
41.1%
K/D
1.26
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
36.6%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
43.9%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
40%
K/D
1.52
Cache
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.62
HS%
40%
K/D
1.43
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Saint Sinners | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 8 Dust2 16-13 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 5 Ancient 8-13 | 4 Cache 13-3 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Iberian Soul | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 2 Mirage 17-19 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | Butterfly | 3 Dust2 9-13 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Enjoy | 6 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-30 | BERG | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Nuke 16-14 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Nexus | 6 Dust2 14-16 | 5 Ancient 5-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Black Phoenix | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 10 Ancient 13-5 | 6 Mirage 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | ENCE | 6 Dust2 13-1 | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































