KillsTake
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.03
Hit
61.2%
EV+
+5.9%
Edge
-4.5
L10
70%
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AWPer
Jee
TYLOO vs 9z
TAKE · UNDER 27.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP27.5UD27.5
▼ L5 20.8 · L20 25.8LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
63%
10/16
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±5.77
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/2 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
18
Under 27.5 ✓
2026-07-09 · XSE Pro League 2026
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-7 · Split
32
Over 27.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
23.5
8/11 hit at 27.5
Online
30.8
2/5 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 25.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.737 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.03
Raw edge
-4.5
Cons. hit
61.2%
EV+
+5.9%
Rating
8.8/10
Exp. rounds
37.3
Line
27.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
61.2%
0 →
Learned
61.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
42.8%477 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 62.5% at this line
Game script fits · OT 1% (under 22%) · 37.3 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 26% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 1.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.1 kills vs line 27.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 34%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.1 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 23.03 vs line 27.5 → -4.47 (-16.3%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 37.3 rounds · 2-0 64.2% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
12.91
HS/Map
4.34
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.61
ADR
66.1
KAST
70.8%
HS%
33.7%
Multi-kill
11.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.5 · KPR 0.651 · 18.1r
Map 2 (Ancient)11.5 · KPR 0.614 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.737
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.32%
Final projected kills23.03
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 78.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.7%
~20 kills · 32r94.7%
Normal47.3%
~25 kills · 41r67.4%
Close maps10.6%
~25 kills · 41r69%
Overtime1.4%
~29 kills · 47r42.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 25.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 26% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
18.1r
+11% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.2r
+5% KPR here
Total
37.3r
2-0 sweep64.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 32 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 24.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 54.3% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 57.5% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 61.2% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 63.6% | |
| 29.5 Under | 64.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
34.1%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
32.6%
K/D
1.22
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
38.4%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
32.2%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
30%
K/D
0.71
Cache
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.82
HS%
27.3%
K/D
1.06
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Spirit | 12 Mirage 5-13 | 9 Anubis 3-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Mirage 13-6 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 16 Mirage 13-2 | 19 Inferno 13-2 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 21 Inferno 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 21 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-2 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 12 Ancient 13-3 | 14 Mirage 13-1 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 20 Cache 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ |
