KillsLean
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.02
Hit
58%
EV+
+0.5%
Edge
-2.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.09
Hit
58.7%
EV+
+1.7%
Edge
-1.4
L10
80%
#45Ranked 45 of 277 on the board

Rifler
zont1x
Team Spirit vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 10.5
BEST UNDER · PP 10.5PP10.5UD9.5
▼ L5 7.6 · L20 10.3Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.06
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.3
12/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 89.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 41.6% HS): below 0.634 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.09
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
58.7%
EV+
+1.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.7%
+6.4 →
Learned
65.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Under risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.6 headshots vs line 10.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 42%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.6 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 9.09 vs line 10.5 → -1.41 (-13.4%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.43
HS/Map
5.17
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.55
ADR
65.9
KAST
69.1%
HS%
41.6%
Multi-kill
11.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)4.8 · KPR 0.581 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)4.9 · KPR 0.612 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.634
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills23.37
× realistic HS% (41.6%)9.09
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 75.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.4%
~8 HS · 33r84.5%
Normal37.6%
~9 HS · 41r67.1%
Close maps27.2%
~10 HS · 43r61.7%
Overtime7.8%
~11 HS · 49r45.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 89.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 8.6 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 33.6% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 47.1% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 58.7% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 64.1% | |
| 12.5 Under | 65.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- First seen10.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.58
HS%
40.5%
K/D
0.88
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
39.8%
K/D
0.92
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.5%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 2 Ancient 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 3 Anubis 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 3 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Anubis 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 1 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 8 Mirage 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 11-13 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-11 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 2 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 1 Ancient 13-10 | 5 Cache 13-5 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 7 Cache 10-13 | 9 Anubis 16-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 11 Nuke 14-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 3 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 5 Cache 9-13 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 9 Dust2 19-15 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































