KillsRisk
Line
33
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.35
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Edge
+2.4
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.47
Hit
65.1%
EV+
+12.8%
Edge
+2.5
L10
70%
#3Ranked 3 of 277 on the board

AWPer
lattykk
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
PLAYABLE · OVER 12
PP12
▼ L5 12.6 · L20 13.3
Hit rates at 12 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.26
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
10.7
1/3 hit at 12
Online · this match
13.8
10/17 hit at 12
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm lattykk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~33 kills at 39.4% HS): 0.628 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (20.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.47
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
65.1%
EV+
+12.8%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
48.5
Line
12
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
65.1%
-8.3 →
Learned
56.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10-14
All players · Headshots
59.7%134 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 77.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.27) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.3 headshots vs line 12.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 39%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.3 against a 12.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 14.47 vs line 12 → +2.47 (20.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 48.5 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.95
HS/Map
6.67
K/D
1.34
KPR
0.72
ADR
74.5
KAST
73.3%
HS%
39.4%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.4 · KPR 0.856 · 24.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)6.9 · KPR 0.736 · 23.8r
Required KPR to clear0.628
Base kills (Maps 1-2)38.66
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.26%
Final projected kills38.76
× realistic HS% (39.4%)14.47
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12. Model: 77.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.6%
~12 HS · 41r44.1%
Normal48.6%
~14 HS · 48r65.5%
Close maps14.1%
~16 HS · 52r76.4%
Overtime16.7%
~17 HS · 58r87.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 48% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.7r
+19% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
48.5r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12 (Over) · avg 13.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
12
Nearby lines
| 10 Over | 67% | |
| 11 Over | 66.6% | |
| 12 Over | 65.1% | OFFERED |
| 13 Over | 61.6% | |
| 14 Over | 56.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12→12no change
- First seen12Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
21.4
KPR
0.88
HS%
42.7%
K/D
1.67
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
39.7%
K/D
1.22
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
32.1%
K/D
1.25
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.71
HS%
28.2%
K/D
1.22
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
36%
K/D
1.22
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | The MongolZ | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Liquid | 2 Anubis 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | PARIVISION | 2 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Ancient 2-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 4 Cache 5-13 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | Color | 9 Anubis 16-14 | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Mirage 16-13 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Sashi | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 10-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 3 Inferno 13-4 | 12 Dust2 16-14 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 19 Dust2 13-16 | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Inferno 5-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DENDELE | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Cache 6-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Nuclear TigeRES | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 4 Inferno 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Color | 4 Cache 13-7 | 4 Cache 13-7 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Color | 1 Ancient 13-2 | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | Color | 1 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Anubis 14-16 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 13 Dust2 19-22 | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Color | 5 Dust2 13-4 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































