KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.7
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.0%
Edge
-1.8
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.42
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.5%
Edge
-0.6
L10
50%
#181Ranked 181 of 277 on the board

Rifler
HUASOPEEK
9z vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 17
BEST UNDER · UD 17.5PP17UD17.5SL17.5
▼ L5 16.8 · L20 18.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.24
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 4-13 · Nuke 7-13 · L
13
Under 17 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.2
10/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HUASOPEEK is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 64% HS): below 0.654 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.42
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.4%
-8.6 →
Learned
40.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15-19
All players · Headshots
40.3%191 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.25) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.6 headshots vs line 17.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 64%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.6 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.42 vs line 17 → -0.58 (-3.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.22
HS/Map
9.1
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.7
ADR
76
KAST
73.3%
HS%
64%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.5 · KPR 0.61 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.8 · KPR 0.655 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.72
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills25.4
× realistic HS% (64%)16.42
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17. Model: 54.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.9%
~14 HS · 34r74.3%
Normal47.6%
~17 HS · 42r48.4%
Close maps12.5%
~18 HS · 43r44%
Overtime10%
~20 HS · 49r26.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
-7% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.2r
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Under) · avg 17.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Under | 38.3% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 42.8% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 49.4% | OFFERED |
| 18 Under | 53.8% | below BE |
| 19 Under | 57.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.5%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
68.6%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
74.3%
K/D
0.88
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.86
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.02
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 15 Cache 11-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 23 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-1 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 4 Cache 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 5 Cache 13-3 | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 15 Ancient 17-19 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 22 Mirage 16-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 5 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Inferno 17-19 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 17 Mirage 16-13 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































