KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.19
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Edge
+1.7
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.62
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.7%
Edge
+1.1
L10
60%
Rifler
Xant3r
Nemiga vs Aurora
RISK · OVER 26.5
BEST OVER · UD 25.5PP26.5UD25.5
≈ L5 31.8 · L20 31.9Risk · Edge +1.7 far below ±3.0 +2
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.94
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
No meeting with Aurora in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.7
5/6 hit at 26.5
Online
31.6
10/14 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Xant3r is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.626 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.7%) or blowout (28.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.19
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Rating
1.6/10
Exp. rounds
42.3
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.9%
0 →
Learned
53.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
57.2%402 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Blowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 28% (under 40%) · team 28% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 5.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.0 kills vs line 26.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 55%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 34.0 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.19 vs line 26.5 → +1.69 (6.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42.3 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.97
HS/Map
8.85
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.5
KAST
71.4%
HS%
55.4%
Multi-kill
19.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.4 · KPR 0.678 · 19.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.8 · KPR 0.656 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.626
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.02%
Final projected kills28.19
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 57.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.1%
~24 kills · 36r32.8%
Normal45.2%
~28 kills · 43r56%
Close maps10%
~30 kills · 45r64.4%
Overtime16.7%
~34 kills · 51r79.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.8r
M2 Mirage
22.5r
-3% KPR here
Total
42.3r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 34.0 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 59.9% | |
| 25.5 Over | 58% | |
| 26.5 Over | 53.9% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 51.3% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 46.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→26.5no change
- First seen26.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
52%
K/D
1.14
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.4%
K/D
0.95
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.74
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.19
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | BetBoom | 3 Anubis 3-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 26 Ancient 25-23 | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 16 Cache 7-13 | 22 Nuke 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 23 Cache 13-11 | 18 Dust2 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 13 Cache 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 26 Mirage 16-12 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 26 Mirage 22-20 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 13 Cache 13-5 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 12 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 15 Nuke 13-2 | 28 Ancient 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Cache 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 8 Cache 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 20 Ancient 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 15 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Cache 13-4 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 19 Dust2 16-13 | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
