KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.12
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.7%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.66
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
+0.2
L10
40%
#150Ranked 150 of 277 on the board

Rifler
jakekeS
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 26.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP26.5UD26.5SL26.5
▼ L5 27.0 · L20 28.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±6.14
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
0/1 hit · avg 16 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 6-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
16
Under 26.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.3
12/20 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jakekeS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.59 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (19.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.12
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
51%
EV+
-11.7%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
44.9
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51%
-8.7 →
Learned
42.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.18) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.6 kills vs line 26.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 55%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 24.6 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.12 vs line 26.5 → +0.62 (2.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.9 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.12
HS/Map
7.78
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.58
ADR
66.7
KAST
72.4%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
14.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)12.1 · KPR 0.554 · 21.9r
Map 2 (Nuke)15.1 · KPR 0.656 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.59
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.17%
Final projected kills27.18
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 54% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.7%
~23 kills · 38r21.9%
Normal49.5%
~26 kills · 44r48.2%
Close maps14.1%
~29 kills · 48r66.6%
Overtime16.7%
~33 kills · 54r85.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
21.9r
-5% KPR here
M2 Nuke
23r
+12% KPR here
Total
44.9r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 24.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 60.8% | |
| 25.5 Over | 56.5% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 51% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 47.1% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 43.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→26.5no change
- First seen26.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.55
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.85
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.3%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.63
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.99
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.7%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.48
HS%
47.4%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit Academy | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 20 Nuke 13-16 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-23 | ex-RUSTEC | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 21 Nuke 13-11 | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-17 | Sökerorg | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Honvéd | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 17 Mirage 16-14 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | FORZE Reload | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | UPGRADE | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | mellren | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Fortress | 14 Ancient 13-2 | 12 Mirage 13-2 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Fire Flux | 14 Inferno 8-13 | 16 Nuke 9-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Fortress | 25 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Iberian Soul | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 33 Mirage 17-19 | 45 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | Butterfly | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ex-RUSTEC | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-30 | ex-RUSTEC | 15 Inferno 13-11 | 20 Nuke 16-14 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | ex-RUSTEC | 26 Dust2 14-16 | 4 Ancient 5-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Leo | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | ex-RUSTEC | 17 Nuke 13-11 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 19 Mirage 16-19 | 14 Anubis 13-11 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 14 Anubis 19-16 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | OT |








































































































































































