KillsRisk
Line
25
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.26
Hit
43.2%
EV+
-25.1%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.21
Hit
47.7%
EV+
-17.4%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%
#211Ranked 211 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
bLitz
The MongolZ vs Vitality
RISK · UNDER 11.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP11.5UD11.5SL11.5
▼ L5 10.8 · L20 13.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
20%
4/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.88
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
No meeting with Vitality in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.3
4/18 hit at 11.5
Online
12.5
0/2 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bLitz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 19.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 47.1% HS): below 0.609 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.21
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
47.7%
EV+
-17.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.7%
-2.4 →
Learned
45.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
40.9%132 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 20.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 20.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.39) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.1 headshots vs line 11.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 47%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.1 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.21 vs line 11.5 → -0.29 (-2.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.03
HS/Map
6.6
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.67
ADR
79.7
KAST
73.9%
HS%
47.1%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)5.2 · KPR 0.579 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.2 · KPR 0.646 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.609
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.59
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.69%
Final projected kills24.18
× realistic HS% (47.1%)11.21
Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11.5. Model: 54% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~9 HS · 34r75.7%
Normal43.9%
~12 HS · 42r48.7%
Close maps12.5%
~12 HS · 43r46.5%
Overtime10%
~14 HS · 49r29.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 19.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 20% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
19.5r
-8% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.6r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 12.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Under | 27.9% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 37.4% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 47.7% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Under | 58.8% | |
| 13.5 Under | 63.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→11.5no change
- First seen11.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
47%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.1%
K/D
1
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.03
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
45.7%
K/D
0.8
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 5 Inferno 12-16 | 3 Nuke 13-2 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 7 Cache 4-13 | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 5 Mirage 13-6 | 5 Ancient 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 6 Inferno 13-9 | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 3 Cache 8-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 4 Inferno 9-13 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 4 Ancient 13-5 | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 6 Nuke 12-16 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Inferno 13-9 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 6 Cache 13-8 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 6 Overpass 8-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 8 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 5 Mirage 16-14 | 8 Overpass 13-3 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ |








































































































































































