KillsBetter playLean
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.62
Hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.6%
Edge
-2.9
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.33
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%
#241Ranked 241 of 277 on the board

Rifler
KusMe
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
RISK · UNDER 16
BEST UNDER · PP 16PP16UD14.5
▲ L5 17.6 · L20 15.3Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.3
10/20 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KusMe is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 55.7% HS): below 0.665 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.33
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.2
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.1%
-7.1 →
Learned
38%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.0 headshots vs line 16.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 56%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 15.0 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.33 vs line 16 → -0.67 (-4.2%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.2 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.78
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.1
KAST
73.5%
HS%
55.7%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.3 · KPR 0.612 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.1 · KPR 0.598 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.665
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.14
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.42%
Final projected kills25.77
× realistic HS% (55.7%)15.33
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 56.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~13 HS · 36r77%
Normal57.5%
~16 HS · 44r49.6%
Close maps10.5%
~16 HS · 46r43.1%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 52r25.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
-5% KPR here
Total
43.2r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 15.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 31.3% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 37.2% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 45.1% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 52.8% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 59.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
52.2%
K/D
0.94
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.47
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
60.9%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.85
HS%
55%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 9 Dust2 13-16 | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Cache 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 14 Mirage 19-16 | 8 Cache 13-5 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 5 Cache 13-9 | 12 Anubis 16-13 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-0 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 3 Dust2 0-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 6 Mirage 9-13 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 10 Dust2 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 7 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































