KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.97
Hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.4%
Edge
-0.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.13
Hit
40.7%
EV+
-29.5%
Edge
+0.6
L10
50%
#256Ranked 256 of 277 on the board

AWPer
cass1n
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · UNDER 27
BEST UNDER · UD 28.5PP27UD28.5
▼ L5 22.8 · L20 27.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 27 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±11.86
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.5
6/11 hit at 27
Online · this match
26.2
6/9 hit at 27
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cass1n is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.612 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.97
Raw edge
-0.0
Cons. hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
27
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.5%
-5.5 →
Learned
37%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25-29
All players · Kills
44.9%265 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.76) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.0 kills vs line 27.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 37%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 29.0 against a 27.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.97 vs line 27 → -0.03 (-0.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.75
HS/Map
5.08
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.63
ADR
65.4
KAST
77.1%
HS%
36.9%
Multi-kill
14.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.7 · KPR 0.66 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.1 · KPR 0.651 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.612
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.53%
Final projected kills28.76
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27. Model: 50.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~23 kills · 37r68.6%
Normal61.7%
~27 kills · 45r52.7%
Close maps8.3%
~29 kills · 47r46.9%
Overtime10%
~33 kills · 53r35%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
22.4r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27 (Under) · avg 29.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
27
Nearby lines
| 25 Under | 38.5% | below BE |
| 26 Under | 40.5% | below BE |
| 27 Under | 42.5% | OFFERED |
| 28 Under | 44.5% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 48.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 27→27no change
- First seen27Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.22
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
33.9%
K/D
1.19
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
38.8%
K/D
1.26
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
41%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.37
HS%
28.6%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 20 Inferno 13-11 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Cache 13-5 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 11 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 24 Cache 16-14 | 31 Mirage 19-16 | 55 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 18 Mirage 16-13 | 26 Inferno 22-19 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 14 Ancient 13-7 | 16 Mirage 13-2 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 12 Mirage 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 10 Cache 7-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 8 Cache 8-13 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 22 Cache 7-13 | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 15 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 14 Inferno 13-6 | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 14 Cache 9-13 | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































