KillsRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.83
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.2%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
20.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
21.9
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.7%
Edge
+1.4
L10
40%

Rifler
yiksrezo
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 31.5
BEST OVER · PP 31.5PP31.5UD32.5SL31.5
▲ L5 35.0 · L20 30.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.69
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.6
7/20 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm yiksrezo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.736 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.83
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.8
Line
31.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.6%
-0.5 →
Learned
49.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
57.7%213 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.46) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.8 kills vs line 31.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 68%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 30.8 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.83 vs line 31.5 → +0.33 (1.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.8 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
10.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.76
ADR
83.2
KAST
72.1%
HS%
67.8%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)15.3 · KPR 0.713 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.2 · KPR 0.734 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.736
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.59%
Final projected kills30.46
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~27 kills · 36r21.8%
Normal51.1%
~33 kills · 44r55.5%
Close maps14.7%
~34 kills · 46r62.4%
Overtime7.8%
~39 kills · 52r82.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
21.8r
-6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21r
-3% KPR here
Total
42.8r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 30.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 57.2% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 54.5% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 49.6% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 44.4% | below BE |
| 33.5 Over | 41.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 31.5→31.5no change
- First seen31.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Nuke
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.9%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.9
HS%
63.8%
K/D
1.35
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
78.9%
K/D
1.1
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.86
Cache
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.49
HS%
52.6%
K/D
0.73
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.2%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Saint Sinners | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 22 Nuke 13-11 | 25 Ancient 13-10 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 23 Ancient 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 23 Dust2 16-13 | 15 Nuke 11-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 18 Ancient 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-3 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Black Phoenix | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | ENCE | 11 Dust2 13-1 | 13 Mirage 13-4 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Omega | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 16 Nuke 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 13 Inferno 9-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Leo | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Drama | 17 Nuke 13-11 | 17 Dust2 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Azuolas | 21 Mirage 16-19 | 24 Anubis 13-11 | 45 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 8 Nuke 13-8 | 35 Anubis 19-16 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | BAKS | 21 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Cache 10-13 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NAVI Junior | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Black Phoenix | 12 Nuke 3-13 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































