KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.77
Hit
44.2%
EV+
-23.5%
Edge
-1.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.66
Hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.0%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
#90Ranked 90 of 277 on the board

Rifler
HeCkBNk
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
RISK · OVER 19.5
BEST OVER · UD 18.5PP19.5UD18.5SL19.5
▲ L5 22.8 · L20 20.7Risk · Edge +1.2 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 19.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±7.77
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
20.7
11/20 hit at 19.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HeCkBNk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 20+ HS (~30 kills at 66.8% HS): 0.676 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (24.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
20.66
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.0%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.2
Line
19.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.8%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
51.1%88 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.74) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.4 headshots vs line 19.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 67%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 21.4 against a 19.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 20.66 vs line 19.5 → +1.16 (5.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.2 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.5
HS/Map
10.35
K/D
1.29
KPR
0.76
ADR
78.7
KAST
77.2%
HS%
66.8%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)9.3 · KPR 0.657 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Ancient)10.4 · KPR 0.731 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.676
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.98
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.42%
Final projected kills29.56
× realistic HS% (66.8%)20.66
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 19.5. Model: 55.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~17 HS · 36r34.1%
Normal57.5%
~21 HS · 44r55.2%
Close maps10.5%
~22 HS · 46r59.9%
Overtime7.8%
~25 HS · 52r73.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
-13% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
-4% KPR here
Total
43.2r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Over) · avg 21.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
| 17.5 Over | 62.2% | |
| 18.5 Over | 60.5% | |
| 19.5 Over | 54.8% | OFFERED |
| 20.5 Over | 47.9% | below BE |
| 21.5 Over | 44.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19.5
Line movement
first 19.5→19.5no change
- First seen19.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
63.8%
K/D
1.08
Cache
7 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.92
HS%
68.3%
K/D
1.68
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.21
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.77
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.25
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
75.7%
K/D
1.54
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 13 Dust2 13-16 | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 26 Mirage 19-16 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 10 Cache 13-9 | 20 Anubis 16-13 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-0 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 7 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 14 Nuke 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Cache 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 18 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































