KillsBetter playNeutral
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.22
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
+3.2
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.72
Hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.4%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%
Rifler
sliimey
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
LEAN · OVER 17
BEST OVER · PP 17PP17UD17.5SL17.5
≈ L5 19.6 · L20 20.0
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
85%
17/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.71
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 20 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
20
Over 17 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.8
4/5 hit at 17
Online
20.4
13/15 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Sliimey is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~32 kills at 57.1% HS): 0.716 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.3%) or blowout (40.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.72
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.4%
Rating
3/10
Exp. rounds
41.6
Line
17
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
52.9%
0 →
Learned
52.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
57.9%247 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.5% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: blowout 41% (under 40%)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 21% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 85.0% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 41% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.43) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.7 headshots vs line 17.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.81, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.7 against a 17.0 line
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.72 vs line 17 → +1.72 (10.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −0.6 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 41.6 rounds · 2-0 65.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.5
HS/Map
10
K/D
1.36
KPR
0.81
ADR
88.5
KAST
76.1%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
20.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.7 · KPR 0.767 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)8.7 · KPR 0.736 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.716
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.20%
Final projected kills30.53
× realistic HS% (57.1%)18.72
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 55.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.5%
~16 HS · 35r33.1%
Normal28.7%
~20 HS · 45r72.6%
Close maps23%
~20 HS · 45r71.3%
Overtime7.8%
~23 HS · 51r86.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 20.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −0.6 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 21% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
20.3r
+1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.3r
-3% KPR here
Total
41.6r
2-0 sweep65.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 18.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 62.8% | |
| 16 Over | 58.3% | |
| 17 Over | 52.9% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 47.2% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 41.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.82
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.18
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.77
HS%
53.6%
K/D
1.26
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.97
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.6
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
61.3%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
22.2
KPR
1.19
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.54
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.92
HS%
33.3%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 13 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 5 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 10 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Inferno 8-13 | 18 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 6 Nuke 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Abyssal | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 9 Dust2 12-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 12 Ancient 4-13 | 11 Dust2 3-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 2 Inferno 1-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-31 | Arcade | 15 Nuke 13-3 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 16 Nuke 19-15 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | LFO 8 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 3 Dust2 13-3 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-12 | Mindfreak | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-11 | Abyssal | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Anubis 0-1 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Mindfreak | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Abyssal | 4 Mirage 13-0 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Time Waves | 16 Inferno 19-17 | 9 Nuke 13-3 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 13 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Anubis 5-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
