KillsBetter playRisk
Line
23.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.66
Hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Edge
+2.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.5
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-12.3%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%
#149Ranked 149 of 277 on the board

Rifler
nin9
The MongolZ vs Vitality
RISK · OVER 23.5
BEST OVER · PP 23.5PP23.5UD24.5SL24.5
≈ L5 27.4 · L20 27.8Risk · Edge +2.2 far below ±3.0 +2
Hit rates at 23.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±11.04
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
No meeting with Vitality in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.1
4/7 hit at 23.5
Online
28.2
9/13 hit at 23.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nin9 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 19.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 24+ kills: 0.577 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (31.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.66
Raw edge
+2.2
Cons. hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.7
Line
23.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.2%
+8.6 →
Learned
59.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 21.5-25.5
All players · Kills
65.7%99 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Blowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.91) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.0 kills vs line 23.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 58%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.0 against a 23.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.66 vs line 23.5 → +2.16 (9.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.7 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.68
ADR
77.2
KAST
72%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.4 · KPR 0.578 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.5 · KPR 0.666 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.577
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.35
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.74%
Final projected kills24.91
Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 23.5. Model: 57.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.4%
~22 kills · 34r37.1%
Normal37.8%
~27 kills · 43r57.8%
Close maps23%
~28 kills · 44r60.1%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 50r72.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 19.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
-10% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
40.7r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23.5 (Over) · avg 29.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
23.5
Nearby lines
| 21.5 Over | 57% | below BE |
| 22.5 Over | 55.1% | below BE |
| 23.5 Over | 51.2% | OFFERED |
| 24.5 Over | 49% | below BE |
| 25.5 Over | 46.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23.5
Line movement
first 23.5→23.5no change
- First seen23.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.92
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.79
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.77
HS%
55.7%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 18 Inferno 12-16 | 15 Nuke 13-2 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 8 Cache 4-13 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 14 Ancient 13-7 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 9 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 19 Inferno 13-8 | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | NEXVOID | 29 Nuke 20-22 | 23 Ancient 11-13 | 52 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | The Huns | 9 Ancient 13-1 | 25 Dust2 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | The Huns | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Lynn Vision | 17 Nuke 9-13 | 18 Inferno 11-13 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | XDM | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 20 Ancient 13-11 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | The KnockoutX | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | The Huns | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 10 Inferno 5-13 | 16 Dust2 7-13 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | The Huns | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Mirage 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | The Huns | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | The Huns | 9 Cache 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | The Huns | 15 Cache 13-6 | 17 Dust2 14-16 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































