KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.61
Hit
48.5%
EV+
-16.0%
Edge
-2.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.54
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Edge
-1.5
L10
40%
Rifler
NertZ
G2 vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 17
BEST UNDER · UD 17.5PP17UD17.5
▲ L5 19.8 · L20 16.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 17 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.68
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.6
10/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Nertz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 52.5% HS): below 0.798 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.54
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.3%
0 →
Learned
47.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 15-19
All players · Headshots
43.9%326 picks
This player
0%3 picks
Warning: NertZ is 0-3 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 17% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 76% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 1.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.2 headshots vs line 17.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 52%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.2 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.54 vs line 17 → -1.46 (-8.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.78
HS/Map
8.28
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.73
ADR
83.5
KAST
73.2%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
19.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.6 · KPR 0.746 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.9 · KPR 0.712 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.798
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.17%
Final projected kills29.61
× realistic HS% (52.5%)15.54
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17. Model: 65.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~13 HS · 34r82.6%
Normal44.2%
~15 HS · 40r63.1%
Close maps14.1%
~17 HS · 43r50.5%
Overtime16.7%
~19 HS · 49r30.3%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.5r
M2 Dust2
21.1r
-5% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Under) · avg 17.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Under | 30.5% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 39% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 47.3% | OFFERED |
| 18 Under | 58.3% | |
| 19 Under | 61.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.07
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
48%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.73
HS%
45.8%
K/D
1.07
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Aurora | 8 Cache 11-13 | 8 Inferno 14-16 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 14 Dust2 19-22 | 24 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Ancient 13-1 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 7-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 12 Anubis 16-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 5 Inferno 13-9 | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 12 Cache 8-13 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Mirage 19-17 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 3 Inferno 6-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Inferno 19-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 7 Anubis 16-12 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ |
