KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.68
Hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.5%
Edge
+1.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.84
Hit
64.3%
EV+
+11.3%
Edge
+2.3
L10
70%
#8Ranked 8 of 277 on the board

Rifler
tAk
BRUTE vs INFINITE
LEAN · OVER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5UD15.5SL15.5
≈ L5 16.8 · L20 17.2
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.75
Previous meeting · vs INFINITE
No meeting with INFINITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.6
3/5 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
17.7
10/15 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tAk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~29 kills at 55% HS): 0.626 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72.5%) or blowout (23.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.84
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
64.3%
EV+
+11.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
15.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
64.3%
+5.7 →
Learned
70%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.28) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 55%. Next: vs INFINITE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
VALUE
- • Model 17.84 vs line 15.5 → +2.34 (15.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 72.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.65
HS/Map
8.6
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.75
ADR
83.2
KAST
78.1%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)9.1 · KPR 0.755 · 22.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)9.1 · KPR 0.73 · 22.9r
Required KPR to clear0.626
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.50%
Final projected kills33.24
× realistic HS% (55%)17.84
INFINITE gives up (70 series)+4.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 73.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.7%
~15 HS · 38r43%
Normal45.5%
~18 HS · 44r67.6%
Close maps14.1%
~19 HS · 48r78.4%
Overtime16.7%
~22 HS · 54r90%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 55% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.1r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.9r
-2% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep72.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 16.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 67% | |
| 14.5 Over | 65.7% | |
| 15.5 Over | 64.3% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 60.3% | |
| 17.5 Over | 51.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
52%
K/D
1.17
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.74
HS%
62%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.72
HS%
50%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
53.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.85
HS%
50%
K/D
1.65
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | INOX Division | 9 Nuke 13-3 | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 8 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 9 Mirage 3-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 8 Anubis 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 12 Inferno 19-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 16 Inferno 16-13 | 9 Dust2 13-16 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 8 Cache 16-12 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Cache 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | Permitta | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-17 | Nexus | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 17 Inferno 19-15 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | G2 Ares | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 9 Cache 8-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | G2 Ares | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Inferno 1-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































