KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.68
Hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.0%
Edge
+0.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.73
Hit
49.7%
EV+
-13.9%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
Rifler
jL
Vitality vs FUT
RISK · OVER 14.5
BEST OVER · PP 14.5PP14.5UD15.5
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 15.1Risk · Edge +0.2 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.95
Previous meeting · vs FUT
1/1 hit · avg 18 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 13-7 · Dust2 13-8 · W
18
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.3
11/19 hit at 14.5
Online
11
0/1 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jL is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55.2% HS): 0.65 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.7%) or blowout (26.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.73
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
49.7%
EV+
-13.9%
Rating
1.2/10
Exp. rounds
40.4
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.7%
0 →
Learned
49.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
59.2%414 picks
This player
0%3 picks
Warning: jL is 0-3 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 75% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 40.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 75% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.6 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 55%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.6 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.73 vs line 14.5 → +0.23 (1.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.4 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.68
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.66
ADR
69.9
KAST
76.2%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.5 · KPR 0.677 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.2 · KPR 0.652 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.65
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.85
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills26.68
× realistic HS% (55.2%)14.73
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 52.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.8%
~12 HS · 34r26.6%
Normal50.7%
~15 HS · 41r54%
Close maps12.5%
~16 HS · 43r60.6%
Overtime10%
~18 HS · 49r78.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 75% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
20.3r
M2 Dust2
20.1r
-4% KPR here
Total
40.4r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 14.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 59.9% | |
| 13.5 Over | 55.5% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 49.7% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 39.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 34% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
60%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.62
HS%
60%
K/D
1.01
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
50%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
59%
K/D
1.24
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.59
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.08
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.4%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | The MongolZ | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-3 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Cache 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 13 Nuke 16-14 | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 12 Dust2 13-2 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 5 Anubis 8-13 | 7 Cache 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-24 | MOUZ | 10 Overpass 13-3 | 5 Ancient 13-1 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-23 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | B8 | 10 Overpass 13-8 | 13 Ancient 22-20 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-22 | MOUZ | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 5 Overpass 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | M80 | 4 Overpass 13-3 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | NRG | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-17 | MOUZ | 0 Mirage 13-2 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | MOUZ | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-15 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Nuke 19-15 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-11 | MOUZ | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
