KillsLean
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
37.19
Hit
61.1%
EV+
+5.9%
Edge
+4.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.2
Hit
63%
EV+
+9.2%
Edge
+1.7
L10
80%
#24Ranked 24 of 277 on the board

AWPer
El1an
INOX Division vs Acend
LEAN · OVER 32.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP32.5SL32.5
▲ L5 36.6 · L20 34.0
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.57
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
34
10/20 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm El1an is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 34.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.678 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (25.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
37.19
Raw edge
+4.7
Cons. hit
61.1%
EV+
+5.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
47.9
Line
32.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.1%
+7.9 →
Learned
69%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
57.2%138 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 70.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (37.44) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.6 kills vs line 32.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 30%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 34.6 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 37.19 vs line 32.5 → +4.69 (14.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.9 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.98
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.3
KPR
0.77
ADR
82.6
KAST
73.4%
HS%
29.7%
Multi-kill
20.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)18.7 · KPR 0.779 · 24r
Map 2 (Mirage)18.7 · KPR 0.784 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.678
Base kills (Maps 1-2)37.43
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.01%
Final projected kills37.44
Acend gives up (32 series)0% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 70.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.8%
~31 kills · 40r40.8%
Normal51.7%
~38 kills · 48r74.2%
Close maps5.8%
~40 kills · 51r82.8%
Overtime16.7%
~44 kills · 57r93.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 62% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.9r
+1% KPR here
Total
47.9r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 34.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 63.5% | |
| 31.5 Over | 62.5% | |
| 32.5 Over | 61.1% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 59.5% | |
| 34.5 Over | 57.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 34.5
Line movement
first 32.5→32.5no change
- First seen32.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
20 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.78
HS%
27.9%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
23.2%
K/D
1.37
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
36%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.86
HS%
41%
K/D
1.69
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
29.5%
K/D
1.52
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
38%
K/D
1.02
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BRUTE | 11 Nuke 3-13 | 24 Dust2 13-5 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 28 Dust2 7-13 | 26 Nuke 13-8 | 54 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | FOKUS | 21 Dust2 16-14 | 18 Cache 7-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | SPARTA | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 19 Mirage 7-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | SPARTA | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Inferno 16-12 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 20 Mirage 13-16 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-16 | SPARTA | 28 Ancient 16-19 | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 20 Dust2 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Leo | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | SPARTA | 13 Cache 13-6 | 11 Dust2 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | SPARTA | 23 Dust2 13-6 | 27 Mirage 20-19 | 50 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | SPARTA | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | SPARTA | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | SPARTA | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 30 Dust2 22-19 | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 49 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | SPARTA | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Cache 13-4 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 22 Dust2 13-16 | 16 Nuke 13-3 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | PCIFIC | 27 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 39 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































