KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.61
Hit
48.5%
EV+
-16.0%
Edge
-2.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.54
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Edge
-1.5
L10
40%
Rifler
NertZ
G2 vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 32.5
BEST UNDER · PP 32.5PP32.5UD31.5
▲ L5 34.4 · L20 31.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other wayLAN UNDER · 44% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 32.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.16
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.6
10/20 hit at 32.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Nertz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: below 0.8 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.61
Raw edge
-2.9
Cons. hit
48.5%
EV+
-16.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.5%
0 →
Learned
48.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
46.4%224 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 4/10 at this line · projection 3.7 from his L10 avg · blocked
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 17% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 76% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 3.7 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.3 kills vs line 32.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 52%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.3 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.61 vs line 32.5 → -2.89 (-8.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.78
HS/Map
8.28
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.73
ADR
83.5
KAST
73.2%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
19.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)14.6 · KPR 0.746 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)15 · KPR 0.712 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.8
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.17%
Final projected kills29.61
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 32.5. Model: 71.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~25 kills · 34r92.7%
Normal44.2%
~29 kills · 40r73.2%
Close maps14.1%
~32 kills · 43r56.9%
Overtime16.7%
~36 kills · 49r28.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.5r
M2 Dust2
21.1r
-5% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Under) · avg 33.3 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Under | 37.9% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 42.3% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 48.5% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 34.5 Under | 57.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 32.5→32.5no change
- First seen32.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.07
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
48%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.73
HS%
45.8%
K/D
1.07
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Aurora | 16 Cache 11-13 | 16 Inferno 14-16 | 32 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 25 Dust2 19-22 | 41 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 18 Ancient 7-13 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-1 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 16 Cache 7-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 20 Mirage 10-13 | 36 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 28 Anubis 16-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 21 Ancient 16-14 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 16 Ancient 13-4 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 18 Ancient 13-8 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 15 Cache 8-13 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 28 Mirage 19-17 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 16 Dust2 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 16 Anubis 7-13 | 18 Inferno 19-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Cache 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 22 Inferno 13-5 | 20 Anubis 16-12 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 3-13 | 12 Anubis 13-3 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ |
