KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.34
Hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.6%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.22
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Edge
+1.7
L10
50%
#40Ranked 40 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Rkzinho
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 29.5
BEST OVER · PP 29.5PP29.5UD30.5SL29.5
≈ L5 28.2 · L20 29.2Risk · Edge +1.8 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.58
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.2
6/10 hit at 29.5
Online
28
3/8 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Rkzinho is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.641 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (26.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.34
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
46
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.2%
+8.1 →
Learned
67.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.68) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.2 kills vs line 29.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 63%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.2 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.34 vs line 29.5 → +1.84 (6.2%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 13.4%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.61
HS/Map
9.14
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.69
ADR
71.6
KAST
75.2%
HS%
62.5%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)17 · KPR 0.724 · 23.6r
Map 2 (Cache)15.7 · KPR 0.707 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.641
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.92
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.73%
Final projected kills32.68
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 62.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.8%
~26 kills · 39r26.5%
Normal39.6%
~32 kills · 46r62.4%
Close maps20.2%
~34 kills · 49r74.6%
Overtime13.4%
~38 kills · 55r90.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23.6r
+4% KPR here
M2 Cache
22.4r
+2% KPR here
Total
46r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)33.6%
Overtime13.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 30.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 64.3% | |
| 28.5 Over | 61.8% | |
| 29.5 Over | 59.2% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 55.9% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
67.3%
K/D
1.18
Cache
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.5
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
73.7%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 11 Cache 13-8 | 25 Dust2 22-18 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 3 Inferno 3-13 | 16 Anubis 16-14 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 12 Cache 7-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 23 Dust2 13-7 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 8 Anubis 4-13 | 23 Cache 11-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 19 Cache 13-9 | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 13-7 | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 22 Anubis 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 16 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Yawara | 23 Dust2 16-13 | 18 Anubis 16-19 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Grêmio | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 22 Inferno 11-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | DAMAJUANA | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 10 Nuke 13-4 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Isurus | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Imperial | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Nuke 3-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Peladona | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 23 Mirage 14-16 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-16 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 18 Cache 10-13 | 14 Anubis 13-4 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | ALKA | 13 Cache 7-13 | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































