KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.35
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.47
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
Rifler · IGL
bLitz
The MongolZ vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 26
BEST UNDER · PP 26PP26UD25.5
▼ L5 24.8 · L20 27.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 26 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.54
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
No meeting with MOUZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.2
8/18 hit at 26
Online
29
0/2 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bLitz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.653 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.35
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.7%
0 →
Learned
48.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 24-28
All players · Kills
43.6%305 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 25% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 2.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.8 kills vs line 26.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 47%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 26.8 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: 27% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 27% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.35 vs line 26 → -1.65 (-6.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.7
HS/Map
6.45
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.66
ADR
78.4
KAST
74.1%
HS%
47.1%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.2 · KPR 0.576 · 19.7r
Map 2 (Nuke)13.1 · KPR 0.66 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.653
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.07%
Final projected kills24.35
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26. Model: 59.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.3%
~21 kills · 33r83.1%
Normal43.2%
~26 kills · 42r50.6%
Close maps12.5%
~26 kills · 43r48.2%
Overtime10%
~30 kills · 49r26.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 25% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Inferno
19.7r
-9% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Under) · avg 26.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Under | 39.5% | below BE |
| 25 Under | 43.1% | below BE |
| 26 Under | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 27 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 55.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26→26no change
- First seen26Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.2%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
44.7%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.75
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.98
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Vitality | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 7 Cache 3-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 12-16 | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 8 Cache 4-13 | 13 Inferno 13-3 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 11 Cache 8-13 | 11 Mirage 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 19 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 9 Inferno 9-13 | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 19 Mirage 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 22 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 15 Nuke 12-16 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 14 Nuke 5-13 | 16 Cache 13-8 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 11 Overpass 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 16 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 17 Overpass 13-3 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
