KillsNeutral
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.97
Hit
56.7%
EV+
-1.8%
Edge
-3.0
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.77
Hit
61.1%
EV+
+5.8%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
AWPer
meyern
9z vs TYLOO
NEUTRAL · UNDER 28
BEST UNDER · PP 28PP28UD27.5
▼ L5 21.8 · L20 24.1
Hit rates at 28 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±6.76
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/2 hit · avg 27.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 13-10 · Mirage 13-2 · W
30
Over 28 ✗
2026-07-09 · XSE Pro League 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Mirage 7-13 · Split
25
Under 28 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.1
14/20 hit at 28
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm meyern is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.739 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.97
Raw edge
-3.0
Cons. hit
56.7%
EV+
-1.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
37.9
Line
28
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
56.7%
0 →
Learned
56.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 26-30
All players · Kills
44.3%352 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.9% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 37.9 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 77% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.6 kills vs line 28.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 37%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.6 against a 28.0 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.97 vs line 28 → -3.03 (-10.8%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 37.9 rounds · 2-0 61.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.03
HS/Map
4.42
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.54
ADR
56.2
KAST
74%
HS%
36.8%
Multi-kill
11.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)10.9 · KPR 0.573 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)12.2 · KPR 0.666 · 18.6r
Required KPR to clear0.739
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.46
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.82%
Final projected kills23.04
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-7.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28. Model: 67.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.5%
~21 kills · 32r88.2%
Normal44.2%
~27 kills · 41r55.6%
Close maps10.5%
~27 kills · 41r57%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 47r32.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 76.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
19.3r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
18.6r
+13% KPR here
Total
37.9r
2-0 sweep61.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Under) · avg 21.6 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
28
Nearby lines
| 26 Under | 48.3% | below BE |
| 27 Under | 52.7% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 56.7% | OFFERED |
| 29 Under | 60% | |
| 30 Under | 62.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 28→28no change
- First seen28Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.53
HS%
41.1%
K/D
0.81
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.64
HS%
35.2%
K/D
1.25
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.52
HS%
32.4%
K/D
0.83
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
38.6%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
38.9%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.56
HS%
28.1%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 5 Nuke 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 15 Cache 10-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 14 Cache 11-13 | 11 Inferno 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Nuke 13-1 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 12 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Mirage 13-2 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 12 Cache 13-3 | 13 Nuke 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 25 Ancient 17-19 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 25 Mirage 16-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 33 Inferno 17-19 | 50 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ |
