KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.34
Hit
51.4%
EV+
-11.0%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.97
Hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.1%
Edge
-1.5
L10
80%
Rifler
makazze
Natus Vincere vs BetBoom
LEAN · UNDER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5
▲ L5 16.8 · L20 15.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
80%
16/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.38
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15
16/20 hit at 16.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm makazze is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 52.8% HS): below 0.676 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.97
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.1%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
46.2
Line
16.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
55.9%
0 →
Learned
55.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
43.5%416 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 63% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 63% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 63% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.8 headshots vs line 16.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 53%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.8 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.97 vs line 16.5 → -1.53 (-9.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.2 rounds · 2-0 52.9% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.2
HS/Map
7.5
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.68
ADR
79.7
KAST
72.5%
HS%
52.8%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.4 · KPR 0.552 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)8.5 · KPR 0.679 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.676
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.67%
Final projected kills28.34
× realistic HS% (52.8%)14.97
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 63.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~13 HS · 39r85.5%
Normal45.6%
~15 HS · 48r62.4%
Close maps16.7%
~16 HS · 49r56.5%
Overtime10%
~18 HS · 55r38.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 63% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
-17% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24r
+3% KPR here
Total
46.2r
2-0 sweep52.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 15.8 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 39.4% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 48.9% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 55.9% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 59.9% | |
| 18.5 Under | 63.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.71
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
44.9%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.13
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
47.5%
K/D
0.68
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
61%
K/D
1.02
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.27
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | FURIA | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 5 Nuke 13-11 | 9 Dust2 22-19 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 24 Anubis 19-15 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 9 Nuke 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 7 Ancient 2-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 10 Inferno 13-5 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 7 Ancient 16-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 1 Dust2 1-13 | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 9 Mirage 13-3 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
