KillsBetter playLean
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.49
Hit
59.3%
EV+
+2.7%
Edge
+3.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsLean
Line
20
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.21
Hit
58.6%
EV+
+1.6%
Edge
+2.2
L10
50%
Rifler
Mail09
Metizport vs BRUTE
LEAN · OVER 20
BEST OVER · PP 20PP20UD20.5
▼ L5 20.4 · L20 21.6
Hit rates at 20 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
61%
11/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.62
Previous meeting · vs BRUTE
No meeting with BRUTE in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
21.8
2/4 hit at 20
Online · this match
21.6
9/14 hit at 20
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MaiL09 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 20.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 21+ HS (~32 kills at 66.3% HS): 0.625 KPR over ~48 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (16.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.21
Raw edge
+2.2
Cons. hit
58.6%
EV+
+1.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
48.3
Line
20
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.6%
0 →
Learned
58.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 18-22
All players · Headshots
51.5%97 picks
This player
20%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 61.1% at this line
Game script fits · 48.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 59% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.3 headshots vs line 20.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 66%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 21.3 against a 20.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 22.21 vs line 20 → +2.21 (11.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 48.3 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.31
HS/Map
10.81
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.7
ADR
74.2
KAST
75.9%
HS%
66.3%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)10.8 · KPR 0.661 · 24.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)11.4 · KPR 0.711 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.625
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.14
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.07%
Final projected kills33.49
× realistic HS% (66.3%)22.21
BRUTE gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 20. Model: 65.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.8%
~19 HS · 41r33%
Normal54.1%
~21 HS · 47r55.8%
Close maps8.4%
~24 HS · 52r72.7%
Overtime20.7%
~27 HS · 58r86.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
24.3r
-2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
24r
+5% KPR here
Total
48.3r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 20 (Over) · avg 21.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
20
Nearby lines
| 18 Over | 63.9% | |
| 19 Over | 62.3% | |
| 20 Over | 58.6% | OFFERED |
| 21 Over | 55.3% | below BE |
| 22 Over | 51.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 20.5
Line movement
first 20→20no change
- First seen20Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
66.8%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
64%
K/D
1.28
Cache
6 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.52
HS%
55.7%
K/D
0.89
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.76
HS%
65.8%
K/D
1.31
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.89
HS%
71.9%
K/D
1.78
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
82.9%
K/D
1.06
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | BAKS | 5 Cache 13-6 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 8 Cache 16-14 | 20 Nuke 17-19 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 8 Cache 13-3 | 8 Nuke 13-2 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 14 Mirage 14-16 | 10 Nuke 8-13 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Cache 13-6 | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Mirage 16-14 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 23 Nuke 25-23 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 13 Inferno 16-13 | 9 Cache 16-13 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 3 Cache 9-13 | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ |
