KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.83
Hit
62.8%
EV+
+8.7%
Edge
+2.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.93
Hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.6%
Edge
+1.4
L10
60%
#14Ranked 14 of 277 on the board

Rifler
iM
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
LEAN · OVER 27.5
BEST OVER · PP 27.5PP27.5UD28.5SL28.5
▲ L5 31.0 · L20 28.9
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.7
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.9
13/20 hit at 27.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm iM is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.653 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.83
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
62.8%
EV+
+8.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
27.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.8%
+7.8 →
Learned
70.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
55.9%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.33) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.5 kills vs line 27.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 46%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.5 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 29.83 vs line 27.5 → +2.33 (8.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.47
HS/Map
6.72
K/D
1
KPR
0.68
ADR
74.5
KAST
74.2%
HS%
46.5%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.2 · KPR 0.723 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)14.1 · KPR 0.681 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.653
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.79%
Final projected kills29.33
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 69% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~25 kills · 35r30.7%
Normal46.9%
~30 kills · 43r68.9%
Close maps16.7%
~32 kills · 45r77.3%
Overtime10%
~36 kills · 51r92.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
21.2r
+6% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 30.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 66.1% | |
| 26.5 Over | 65.2% | |
| 27.5 Over | 62.8% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 60% | |
| 29.5 Over | 54.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
51.4%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
51%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.9%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
42.4%
K/D
0.93
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
50%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
0.89
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
38.9%
K/D
0.95
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 27 Dust2 22-19 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 21 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Cache 10-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 22 Anubis 19-15 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 5-13 | 13 Nuke 13-5 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 16 Inferno 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 14 Cache 13-10 | 18 Inferno 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 14 Nuke 8-13 | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 5 Ancient 2-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 17 Inferno 13-5 | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 19 Inferno 14-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 11 Dust2 3-13 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 15 Nuke 8-13 | 15 Ancient 16-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 1-13 | 14 Anubis 8-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 15 Mirage 13-3 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 13 Ancient 13-8 | 18 Nuke 13-6 | 31 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































